Revised QCD effects on the Z $\to b\bar{b}$ forward-backward asymmetry

The forward-backward (FB) asymmetry of $b$ quarks in $e^+e^-$ collisions at the Z pole measured at LEP, $A_{FB}^{0,b} = 0.0992\pm0.0016$, remains today the electroweak precision observable with the largest disagreement (2.4$\sigma$) with respect to the Standard Model prediction, $(A_{FB}^{0,b})_{_{\rm th}} = 0.1030 \pm 0.0002$. Beyond the dominant statistical uncertainties, QCD effects, such as $b$-quark showering and hadronization, are the leading sources of $A_{FB}^{0,b}$ systematic uncertainty, and have not been revised in the last twenty years. We reassess the QCD uncertainties of the eight original $A_{FB}^{0,b}$ LEP measurements, using modern parton shower PYTHIA-8 and PYTHIA-8 + VINCIA simulations with nine different implementations of soft and collinear radiation as well as of parton fragmentation. Our analysis, combined with NNLO massive $b$-quark corrections independently computed recently, indicates total propagated QCD uncertainties of $\sim$0.7% and $\sim$0.3% for the lepton-charge and jet-charge analyses, respectively, that are about a factor of two smaller than those of the original LEP results. Accounting for such updated QCD effects leads to a new $A_{FB}^{0,b} = 0.0996\pm0.0016$ average, with a data-theory tension slightly reduced from 2.4$\sigma$ to 2.1$\sigma$. Confirmation or resolution of this long-term discrepancy requires a new high-luminosity $e^+e^-$ collider collecting orders-of-magnitude more data at the Z pole to significantly reduce the $A_{FB}^{0,b}$ statistical uncertainties.