A phenomenological theory of world population growth and global problems

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. To describe this process in its past and project it into the future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolv The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be selfsimilar and described by scaling. In terms of kinetics, the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people and the nonlinear hyperbol of all mechanisms that contribute to our development in a collective interactive process. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution c.a. 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived c.a. 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing and inherent periodicity. As we approach the present, this progression of cycles is now termo transition. This is a singular epoch in all human development, a very rapid transition centered on a year 2007 and is to lead to a fundamental change in the age profile of population with profound effects on society. In the near future this critical levelling off of the world population at c.a. 14 billion. The transition is seen to be determined by the intrinsic dynamic properties of the global population system, rather than by an external lack of resources. The model provides a consistent quantitative framework of interest for anthropology and history, demography and sociology, population generics and human evolution. As an attempt of an interdisciplinary study it provides insight into the systemic behaviour of the world population, seen as an entity at a decisive time of our growth and can lead to an understsanding of the trends and stability of development both encompassing the whole human story and the present predicament of humankind. Consideration will be given to global problems of resources, energy and sustainable development. The concepts and ideas of the Club of Rome will be examin-ed and the agenda for the future of humankind considered in some detail.