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Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution?

This contribution to the debate on confidence limits focuses mostly on thecase of measurements with `open likelihood', in the sense that it is defined inthe text. I will show that, though a prior-free assessment of {\it confidence}is, in general, not possible, still a search result can be repor...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: D'Agostini, G.
Lenguaje:eng
Publicado: CERN 2000
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://dx.doi.org/10.5170/CERN-2000-005.3
http://cds.cern.ch/record/427961
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author D'Agostini, G.
author_facet D'Agostini, G.
author_sort D'Agostini, G.
collection CERN
description This contribution to the debate on confidence limits focuses mostly on thecase of measurements with `open likelihood', in the sense that it is defined inthe text. I will show that, though a prior-free assessment of {\it confidence}is, in general, not possible, still a search result can be reported in a mostlyunbiased and efficient way, which satisfies some desiderata which I believe areshared by the people interested in the subject. The simpler case of `closedlikelihood' will also be treated, and I will discuss why a uniform prior on asensible quantity is a very reasonable choice for most applications. In bothcases, I think that much clarity will be achieved if we remove from scientificparlance the misleading expressions `confidence intervals' and `confidence levels'.
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institution Organización Europea para la Investigación Nuclear
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publishDate 2000
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spelling cern-4279612023-03-12T05:39:51Zdoi:10.5170/CERN-2000-005.3http://cds.cern.ch/record/427961engD'Agostini, G.Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution?Detectors and Experimental TechniquesThis contribution to the debate on confidence limits focuses mostly on thecase of measurements with `open likelihood', in the sense that it is defined inthe text. I will show that, though a prior-free assessment of {\it confidence}is, in general, not possible, still a search result can be reported in a mostlyunbiased and efficient way, which satisfies some desiderata which I believe areshared by the people interested in the subject. The simpler case of `closedlikelihood' will also be treated, and I will discuss why a uniform prior on asensible quantity is a very reasonable choice for most applications. In bothcases, I think that much clarity will be achieved if we remove from scientificparlance the misleading expressions `confidence intervals' and `confidence levels'.This contribution to the debate on confidence limits focuses mostly on the case of measurements with `open likelihood', in the sense that it is defined in the text. I will show that, though a prior-free assessment of {\it confidence} is, in general, not possible, still a search result can be reported in a mostly unbiased and efficient way, which satisfies some desiderata which I believe are shared by the people interested in the subject. The simpler case of `closed likelihood' will also be treated, and I will discuss why a uniform prior on a sensible quantity is a very reasonable choice for most applications. In both cases, I think that much clarity will be achieved if we remove from scientific parlance the misleading expressions `confidence intervals' and `confidence levels'.CERNhep-ex/0002055oai:cds.cern.ch:4279612000
spellingShingle Detectors and Experimental Techniques
D'Agostini, G.
Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution?
title Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution?
title_full Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution?
title_fullStr Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution?
title_full_unstemmed Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution?
title_short Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution?
title_sort confidence limits: what is the problem? is there the solution?
topic Detectors and Experimental Techniques
url https://dx.doi.org/10.5170/CERN-2000-005.3
http://cds.cern.ch/record/427961
work_keys_str_mv AT dagostinig confidencelimitswhatistheproblemistherethesolution