On the Interpretation of $B_{s} \to \mu^{+} mu^{-}$ in the CMSSM

We discuss the interpretation of present and possible future experimental constraints on B_s to mu^+ mu^- decay in the context of the constrained minimal extension of the Standard Model (CMSSM) with universal scalar masses. We emphasize the importance of including theoretical and other experimental uncertainties in calculating the likelihood function, which can affect significantly the inferred 95% confidence-level limit on the CMSSM parameters. The principal uncertainties are the B_s meson decay constant, m_t and m_b. The latter induce uncertainties in the mass of the charged Higgs boson that dominates the B_s to mu^+ mu^- decay amplitude at large tan beta, reducing the CMSSM region excluded by present and possible future limits from the Fermilab Tevatron collider and the LHC.