Update on Predictions for Yearly Integrated Luminosity for HL-LHC based on Expected Machine Availability

Machine availability is one of the key performance indicators to reach the ambitious goals for integrated luminosity in the post Long Shutdown 1 (LS1) era. Machine availability is even more important for the future High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) [1]. In this paper a Monte Carlo approach has been used to predict integrated luminosity as a function of LHC machine availability. The baseline model assumptions such as fault-time distributions and machine failure rate (number of fills with stable beams dumped after a failure / total number of fills with stable beams) were deduced from the observations during LHC operation in 2012. The predictions focus on operation after LS1 and its evolution towards HL-LHC. The extrapolation of relevant parameters impacting on machine availability is outlined and their corresponding impact on fault time distributions is discussed. Results for possible future operational scenarios are presented. Finally, a sensitivity analysis with relevant model parameters like fault time and machine failure rate is discussed.