Can we predict luminosity?

In these proceedings, a luminosity model based on the main components (intrabeam scattering, synchrotron radiation , elastic scattering and luminosity burn-oil) responsible for the LHC luminosity evolution, is compared with data from the 2016 Run of LHC. Based 011 a bunch-by-bunch and fill-by-fill analysis, the data are compared to the model predictions and possible sources of luminosity degradation are discussed. The impact of the degradation mechanisms on the integrated luminosity is also presented.