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Risk of infestations by Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann bark beetles in forests of Michoacán

Introduction: Severe Dendroctonus spp. infestations are reported in North and Central America. Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann are recognized as forest pests and are common in the state of Michoacán, Mexico. Objective: To model current and future (2015-2039) spat...

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Autores principales: Martínez-Rincón, Sigifredo, Valdez-Lazalde, José R., de los Santos-Posadas, Héctor M., Sánchez-Martínez, Guillermo
Formato: Online Artículo
Lenguaje:spa
Publicado: Universidad Autónoma Chapingo 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://revistas.chapingo.mx/forestales/article/view/r.rchscfa.2020.11.069
https://dx.doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2020.11.069
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author Martínez-Rincón, Sigifredo
Valdez-Lazalde, José R.
de los Santos-Posadas, Héctor M.
Sánchez-Martínez, Guillermo
author_facet Martínez-Rincón, Sigifredo
Valdez-Lazalde, José R.
de los Santos-Posadas, Héctor M.
Sánchez-Martínez, Guillermo
author_sort Martínez-Rincón, Sigifredo
collection Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente
description Introduction: Severe Dendroctonus spp. infestations are reported in North and Central America. Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann are recognized as forest pests and are common in the state of Michoacán, Mexico. Objective: To model current and future (2015-2039) spatial distribution of risk D. mexicanus and D. frontalis infestation in forests of Michoacán, Mexico. Materials and methods: Multicriteria evaluation techniques, including the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy membership functions, were combined with climate and biophysical variables to obtain forest infestation risk maps for D. mexicanus and D. frontalis under current and future climate scenarios. Results and discussion: Climate, fire, tree density and topography were identified as relevant criteria influencing bark beetle outbreaks. The maximum risk value estimated for D. mexicanus was 0.78 and 0.83 for the current and future scenarios, respectively; for D. frontalis these values correspond to 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. In terms of area, high risk of infestation by D. mexicanus increased from 3.9 % (current scenario) to 5.0 % (future scenario); for D. frontalis it decreased from 10.8 % to 9.6 %. The very high-risk value remained constant (0.35 %) for both species and scenarios. Conclusions: Forests of the Transversal Volcanic Belt (in the northeastern part of Michoacán) have the highest risk of bark beetle infestation in the two modeled scenarios.
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spelling oai_chapingo-forestales-_article-342023-08-28T16:31:41Z Risk of infestations by Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann bark beetles in forests of Michoacán Riesgo de infestaciones por los descortezadores Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins y Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann en bosques de Michoacán Martínez-Rincón, Sigifredo Valdez-Lazalde, José R. de los Santos-Posadas, Héctor M. Sánchez-Martínez, Guillermo Cambio climático modelación espacial insectos de coníferas plaga forestal proceso de análisis jerárquico Climate change spatial modeling conifer insects forest pest Analytic Hierarchy Process Introduction: Severe Dendroctonus spp. infestations are reported in North and Central America. Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann are recognized as forest pests and are common in the state of Michoacán, Mexico. Objective: To model current and future (2015-2039) spatial distribution of risk D. mexicanus and D. frontalis infestation in forests of Michoacán, Mexico. Materials and methods: Multicriteria evaluation techniques, including the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy membership functions, were combined with climate and biophysical variables to obtain forest infestation risk maps for D. mexicanus and D. frontalis under current and future climate scenarios. Results and discussion: Climate, fire, tree density and topography were identified as relevant criteria influencing bark beetle outbreaks. The maximum risk value estimated for D. mexicanus was 0.78 and 0.83 for the current and future scenarios, respectively; for D. frontalis these values correspond to 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. In terms of area, high risk of infestation by D. mexicanus increased from 3.9 % (current scenario) to 5.0 % (future scenario); for D. frontalis it decreased from 10.8 % to 9.6 %. The very high-risk value remained constant (0.35 %) for both species and scenarios. Conclusions: Forests of the Transversal Volcanic Belt (in the northeastern part of Michoacán) have the highest risk of bark beetle infestation in the two modeled scenarios. Introducción: En Norteamérica y Centroamérica se reportan infestaciones fuertes por Dendroctonus spp. En México, Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins y Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann son reconocidos como plagas forestales y son comunes en el estado de Michoacán. Objetivo: Modelar la distribución espacial actual y futura (2015-2039) del riesgo de brotes de D. mexicanus y D. frontalis en los bosques del estado de Michoacán, México. Materiales y métodos: Se conjuntaron técnicas de evaluación multicriterio, incluyendo el proceso de análisis jerárquico y funciones de membresía borrosa, con variables climáticas y biofísicas para obtener mapas del riesgo de infestación de bosques por D. mexicanus y D. frontalis bajo los escenarios climáticos actual y futuro. Resultados y discusión: El clima, incendio, densidad arbórea y topografía se identificaron como criterios relevantes que inciden en los brotes de descortezadores. El valor máximo de riesgo estimado para D. mexicanus fue 0.78 y 0.83 para el escenario actual y futuro, respectivamente; para D. frontalis estos valores corresponden a 0.84 y 0.85, respectivamente. En términos de superficie, el riesgo alto de infestación por D. mexicanus incrementó de 3.9 % (escenario actual) a 5.0 % (futuro); para D. frontalis disminuyó de 10.8 % a 9.6 %. El valor de riesgo muy alto permaneció constante (0.35 %) para ambas especies y escenarios. Conclusiones: En los dos escenarios modelados, los bosques de la Faja Volcánica Transversal (en la parte noreste de Michoacán) presentan el mayor riesgo de infestación por descortezadores. Universidad Autónoma Chapingo 2021-12-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revistas.chapingo.mx/forestales/article/view/r.rchscfa.2020.11.069 10.5154/r.rchscfa.2020.11.069 Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente; Vol. 28 No. 1 (2022): January-April; 37–55 Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente; Vol. 28 Núm. 1 (2022): enero-abril; 37–55 2007-4018 2007-3828 spa https://revistas.chapingo.mx/forestales/article/view/r.rchscfa.2020.11.069/r.rchscfa.2020.11.069 Derechos de autor 2021 Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
spellingShingle Cambio climático
modelación espacial
insectos de coníferas
plaga forestal
proceso de análisis jerárquico
Climate change
spatial modeling
conifer insects
forest pest
Analytic Hierarchy Process
Martínez-Rincón, Sigifredo
Valdez-Lazalde, José R.
de los Santos-Posadas, Héctor M.
Sánchez-Martínez, Guillermo
Risk of infestations by Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann bark beetles in forests of Michoacán
title Risk of infestations by Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann bark beetles in forests of Michoacán
title_alt Riesgo de infestaciones por los descortezadores Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins y Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann en bosques de Michoacán
title_full Risk of infestations by Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann bark beetles in forests of Michoacán
title_fullStr Risk of infestations by Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann bark beetles in forests of Michoacán
title_full_unstemmed Risk of infestations by Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann bark beetles in forests of Michoacán
title_short Risk of infestations by Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann bark beetles in forests of Michoacán
title_sort risk of infestations by dendroctonus mexicanus hopkins and dendroctonus frontalis zimmermann bark beetles in forests of michoacán
topic Cambio climático
modelación espacial
insectos de coníferas
plaga forestal
proceso de análisis jerárquico
Climate change
spatial modeling
conifer insects
forest pest
Analytic Hierarchy Process
topic_facet Cambio climático
modelación espacial
insectos de coníferas
plaga forestal
proceso de análisis jerárquico
Climate change
spatial modeling
conifer insects
forest pest
Analytic Hierarchy Process
url https://revistas.chapingo.mx/forestales/article/view/r.rchscfa.2020.11.069
https://dx.doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2020.11.069
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