Climate change effects on thermal requirements and number of broods of whitefly (Bemicia tabaci) in the north-central region of Mexico

Capsicum annuum L. pepper is an economically important crop in Mexico. Bemisia tabaci whitefly is a pest that attacks this crop. Whitefly can transmit more than 200 viruses and cause severe losses to pepper crops. The objective of this research was to know the possible effect of climate change on thermal requirements and the number of broods of B. tabaci in the north-central region of Mexico. The number of hours at which the temperature was inside and outside of the optimal ranges (as defined by the cardinal temperatures), and the number of generations were estimated. Maps of the current climate scenario were generated (1981-2010) and for the periods 2030, 2050, and 2070 for RCP 4.5 and 8.5. A favorable effect of climate change is observed in future climate scenarios in the north-central region of Mexico, as well as in the increase of the number of broods in the growing pepper season (April-October); this could decrease the yield of the crop due to the negative effect of this pest. This pest is expected to spread to regions where increased temperatures eliminate frost, allowing populations of this pest throughout the year.