Simulaciones de modelos estacionales de propagación del covid: estudio de caso en México

In this work we propose some mathematical models to simulate seasonality behaviorof Covid-19 spread; a periodic transmission rate is added to SEIR, SEIRS, SEIRS withvaccination (SEIRSV) ode systems and the models are fitted to reported Covid infectedhistorical data 2021 in Mexico. Numerical simulati...

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Autores principales: Ortigoza, Gerardo, Hermida, Guillermo, Hernández, Miguel
Formato: Online Artículo
Lenguaje:spa
Publicado: Instituto de Medicina Forense. Universidad Veracruzana 2022
Acceso en línea:https://revmedforense.uv.mx/index.php/RevINMEFO/article/view/2977
https://dx.doi.org/10.25009/revmedforense.v7i2.2977
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author Ortigoza, Gerardo
Hermida, Guillermo
Hernández, Miguel
author_facet Ortigoza, Gerardo
Hermida, Guillermo
Hernández, Miguel
author_sort Ortigoza, Gerardo
collection Revista Mexicana de Medicina Forense y Ciencias de la Salud
description In this work we propose some mathematical models to simulate seasonality behaviorof Covid-19 spread; a periodic transmission rate is added to SEIR, SEIRS, SEIRS withvaccination (SEIRSV) ode systems and the models are fitted to reported Covid infectedhistorical data 2021 in Mexico. Numerical simulations reproduce the qualitative seasonalitybehavior of covid spread and provide an insight to develop strategies to prevent the diseasesspread. Nearly all discussed approaches show the possible appearance of a fourth covidwave in Mexico at the end of 2021. Our results suggest that it is mandatory to considerseasonal factors when planing intervention strategies.Key words: seir, reinfection, vaccination, periodic transmission rate, machinelearning, Pearson correlation, seasonality.Codes: 68U20, 92D30, 65D10,00A71.
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spelling oai_revmedforense-article-29772022-08-10T16:05:49Z Simulaciones de modelos estacionales de propagación del covid: estudio de caso en México Ortigoza, Gerardo Hermida, Guillermo Hernández, Miguel In this work we propose some mathematical models to simulate seasonality behaviorof Covid-19 spread; a periodic transmission rate is added to SEIR, SEIRS, SEIRS withvaccination (SEIRSV) ode systems and the models are fitted to reported Covid infectedhistorical data 2021 in Mexico. Numerical simulations reproduce the qualitative seasonalitybehavior of covid spread and provide an insight to develop strategies to prevent the diseasesspread. Nearly all discussed approaches show the possible appearance of a fourth covidwave in Mexico at the end of 2021. Our results suggest that it is mandatory to considerseasonal factors when planing intervention strategies.Key words: seir, reinfection, vaccination, periodic transmission rate, machinelearning, Pearson correlation, seasonality.Codes: 68U20, 92D30, 65D10,00A71. Instituto de Medicina Forense. Universidad Veracruzana 2022-07-17 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revmedforense.uv.mx/index.php/RevINMEFO/article/view/2977 10.25009/revmedforense.v7i2.2977 REVISTA MEXICANA DE MEDICINA FORENSE Y CIENCIAS DE LA SALUD; Vol. 7, Núm. 2: Rev Mex Med Forense 2448-8011 10.25009/revmedforense.v7i2 spa https://revmedforense.uv.mx/index.php/RevINMEFO/article/view/2977/4870 Copyright (c) 2022 REVISTA MEXICANA DE MEDICINA FORENSE Y CIENCIAS DE LA SALUD
spellingShingle Ortigoza, Gerardo
Hermida, Guillermo
Hernández, Miguel
Simulaciones de modelos estacionales de propagación del covid: estudio de caso en México
title Simulaciones de modelos estacionales de propagación del covid: estudio de caso en México
title_full Simulaciones de modelos estacionales de propagación del covid: estudio de caso en México
title_fullStr Simulaciones de modelos estacionales de propagación del covid: estudio de caso en México
title_full_unstemmed Simulaciones de modelos estacionales de propagación del covid: estudio de caso en México
title_short Simulaciones de modelos estacionales de propagación del covid: estudio de caso en México
title_sort simulaciones de modelos estacionales de propagación del covid: estudio de caso en méxico
url https://revmedforense.uv.mx/index.php/RevINMEFO/article/view/2977
https://dx.doi.org/10.25009/revmedforense.v7i2.2977
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AT hermidaguillermo simulacionesdemodelosestacionalesdepropagaciondelcovidestudiodecasoenmexico
AT hernandezmiguel simulacionesdemodelosestacionalesdepropagaciondelcovidestudiodecasoenmexico

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