MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Potential Wintering Distribution of Eurasian Spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia leucorodia) under Climate Change in China

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Climate change has become an important cause of habitat loss. The Eurasian Spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia leucorodia) is a national grade II protected wildlife species in China. Few studies on the distribution and protection of Eurasian Spoonbill have been carried out in wintering grounds. We simulated the potential distribution of the Eurasian Spoonbill and analyzed the impact of climate change on this species, with occurrence sites recorded during the National Waterbird Simultaneous Survey of China in 2016 to support species conservation. We also analyzed the main environmental factors affecting its overwintering distribution. We conclude that the majority of suitable wintering habitats are concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and tend to shift northward under future emission scenarios. Moreover, the main factors affecting the suitable wintering habitat areas at present are water distance, altitude, precipitation, and mean temperature of the driest quarter. Therefore, future conservation work should pay considerable attention to the suitable habitat of the white spoonbill in the middle and high levels to effectively conserve this species over time. These findings offer a valuable reference for the conservation of the Eurasian Spoonbill and other endangered species under climate change. Furthermore, it provides a reference for wetland development, utilization, and protection. ABSTRACT: Global climate change has become a trend and is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity patterns and species distributions. Many wild animals adapt to the changing living environment caused by climate change by changing their habitats. Birds are highly sensitive to climate change. Understanding the suitable wintering habitat of the Eurasian Spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia leucorodia) and its response to future climatic change is essential for its protection. In China, it was listed as national grade II key protected wild animal in the adjusted State List of key protected wild animals in 2021, in Near Threatened status. Few studies on the distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill have been carried out in China. In this study, we simulated the suitable habitat under the current period and modeled the distribution dynamics of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill in response to climate change under different periods by using the MaxEnt model. Our results showed that the current suitable wintering habitats for the Eurasian Spoonbill are mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Distance from the water, precipitation of the driest quarter, altitude, and mean temperature of the driest quarter contributed the most to the distribution model for the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill, with a cumulative contribution of 85%. Future modeling showed that the suitable distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill extends to the north as a whole, and the suitable area shows an increasing trend. Our simulation results are helpful in understanding the distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill under different periods in China and support species conservation.