Habitat Suitability and Conflict Zone Mapping for the Blue Bull (Boselaphus tragocamelus) across Nepal

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Rapidly changing environmental conditions can alter the spatial distribution of flora and fauna. This study aimed to understand the influence of environmental variables on the Blue bull’s distribution and identify potential conflict zones in Nepal. Using ensemble modeling, the habitat suitability analysis of the Blue bull was performed by selecting 15 ecologically significant environmental variables and employing ten species distribution modeling algorithms. Random Forest, Maxent, and Generalized linear models showed the highest mean true skill statistics scores and were further analyzed. The study found that 15.26% of Nepal, or 22,462.57 km(2), is suitable for the Blue bull, and the environmental variables contributing to the distribution of the Blue bull were slope, precipitation seasonality, and distance to the road. Furthermore, 45% of the predicted suitable habitats overlap with agricultural land, highlighting the potential for human–Blue bull conflicts. Therefore, this study recommends implementing appropriate conflict mitigation measures, such as cooperatively guarding crops, changing cropping patterns, using repellents, fencing, translocation, physical barriers, and sterilization. This study establishes a baseline for suitable habitats for the Blue bull and identifies potential conflict zones in Nepal, emphasizing the need for conservation initiatives inside and outside protected areas. ABSTRACT: Rapidly changing environmental conditions (bioclimatic, anthropogenic, topographic, and vegetation-related variables) are likely to alter the spatial distribution of flora and fauna. To understand the influence of environmental variables on the Blue bull’s distribution and to identify potential conflict zones, the habitat suitability analysis of the Blue bull was performed using ensemble modeling. We modelled the distribution of the Blue bull using an extensive database on the current distribution of the Blue bull and selected 15 ecologically significant environmental variables. We used ten species distribution modeling algorithms available in the BIOMOD2 R package. Among the ten algorithms, the Random Forest, Maxent, and Generalized linear model had the highest mean true skill statistics scores, ensuring better model performance, and were considered for further analysis. We found that 22,462.57 km(2) (15.26%) of Nepal is suitable for the Blue bull. Slope, precipitation seasonality, and distance to the road are the environmental variables contributing the most to the distribution of Blue bull. Of the total predicted suitable habitats, 86% lies outside protected areas and 55% overlaps with agricultural land. Thus, we recommend that the future conservation initiatives including appropriate conflict mitigation measures should be prioritized equally in both protected areas and outside protected areas to ensure the species’ survival in the region.