Does Nepal Have the Agriculture to Feed Its Population with a Sustainable Diet? Evidence from the Perspective of Human–Land Relationship

Nepal is one of the least developed countries in the world, with more than 80% of the population engaged in agricultural production and more than two-fifths of the population still living below the poverty line. Ensuring food security has always been a key national policy in Nepal. Using a nutrient conversion model and an improved resource carrying capacity model as well as statistical data and household questionnaires, an analysis framework for food supply balance is developed in this study, which quantitatively analyzes the balance of food supply and demand in Nepal from the perspectives of food and calories during the period 2000–2020. Nepal’s agricultural production and consumption have increased significantly, and the diet has been relatively stable over the past two decades. The diet structure is stable and homogeneous, with plant products occupying the absolute position in overall dietary consumption. The supply of food and calories varies widely from region to region. Although the increasing supply level at the national scale can meet the needs of the current population, the food self-sufficiency level cannot meet the needs of the local population development at the county level due to the influence of population, geographical location, and land resources. We found that the agricultural environment in Nepal is fragile. The government can improve agricultural production capacity by adjusting the agricultural structure, improving the efficiency of agricultural resources, improving the cross-regional flow of agricultural products, and improving international food trade channels. The food supply and demand balance framework provided a reference for achieving balance between the supply and demand of food and calories in a resource-carrying land and provides a scientific basis for Nepal to achieve zero hunger under the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, development of policies in order to increase agricultural productivity will be critical for improving food security in agricultural countries such as Nepal.