Rural Industrial Integration’s Impact on Agriculture GTFP Growth: Influence Mechanism and Empirical Test Using China as an Example

Agricultural carbon emission is an significant cause of global climate change and many environmental and health problems. Achieving low-carbon and green development in agriculture is not only an inevitable choice for countries around the world to cope with climate change and the accompanying environmental and health problems, but also a necessary path for the sustainable development of global agriculture. The promotion of rural industrial integration is a practical way to realize sustainable agricultural growth and urban–rural integration development. The analysis framework of agriculture GTFP is creatively extended in this study to include the integration and growth of rural industries, rural human capital investment and rural land transfer. According to the sample data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 and the systematic GMM estimation method, and through the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical testing, this paper discusses the influence mechanism of rural industrial integration development on agriculture GTFP growth, as well as the regulating role of rural human capital investment and rural land transfer. The results show that rural industrial integration has significantly promoted the growth of agriculture GTFP. Additionally, after decomposing agriculture GTFP into the agricultural green technology progress index and agricultural green technology efficiency index, it is found that rural industrial integration has a more obvious role in promoting agricultural green technology progress. Furthermore, quantile regression found that with the increase in agricultural GTFP, the promoting effect of rural industrial integration showed an “inverted U-shaped” feature. Through heterogeneity testing, it is found that the agriculture GTFP growth effect of rural industrial integration is more obvious in areas with high level of rural industrial integration. Additionally, as the nation places more and more focus on rural industrial integration, the promotion role of rural industrial integration has become more and more obvious. The moderating effect test showed that health, education and training, migration of rural human capital investment and rural land transfer all strengthened the promoting effect of rural industrial integration on agricultural GTFP growth to varying degrees. This study provides rich policy insights for China and other developing countries around the world to address global climate change and many related environmental and monitoring issues by developing rural industrial integration, strengthening rural human capital investment and promoting agricultural land transfer to achieve sustainable agricultural growth and reduce undesirable output outputs such as agricultural carbon emissions.