Linking Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand to Evaluate the Ecological Security in the Pearl River Delta Based on the Pressure-State-Response Model

The increase in population and economic development has made environmental issues more serious and threatens regional ecological security and sustainable development. Currently, most indicators in the related research field of ecological security tend to be socio-economic and neglect depicting the state of the ecosystems. This study, therefore, assessed the ecological security by constructing the evaluation index system embedded in the ecosystem service supply and demand based on the pressure–state–response model and identified the key obstacles to ecological security in the Pearl River Delta from 1990 to 2015. Our results showed that soil retention, carbon sequestration, and water yield increased with fluctuation except for grain production and habitat quality. The grain demand, carbon emission, and water demand increased sharply by 10.1%, 769.4%, and 17.5%, respectively. The ecosystem service supply areas were mainly located in the low hills, while the demand regions were mainly in the low plain areas. The ecological security index’s decline in vitality was caused by the decrease in the pressure index, indicating that the ecological security showed an inevitable deterioration and increased pressure on the ecosystem. During the study period, the source of the five key obstacle factors changed from the state layer and response layer to the pressure layer. The accumulative degree of the five top obstacle factors was above 45%. Therefore, governments should grasp the key indicators to improve ecological security as this study provides the theoretical basis and scientific information for sustainable development.