Analysis of the Low-Carbon Transition Effect and Development Pattern of Green Credit for Prefecture-Level Cities in the Yellow River Basin

Green credit is a vital instrument for promoting low-carbon transition. However, designing a reasonable development pattern and efficiently allocating limited resources has become a challenge for developing countries. The Yellow River Basin, a critical component of the low-carbon transition in China, is still in the early stages of green credit development. Most cities in this region lack green credit development plans that suit their economic conditions. This study examined the impact of green credit on carbon emission intensity and utilized a k-means clustering algorithm to categorize the green credit development patterns of 98 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin based on four static indicators and four dynamic indicators. Regression results based on city-level panel data from 2006 to 2020 demonstrated that the development of green credit in the Yellow River Basin can effectively reduce local carbon emission intensity and promote low-carbon transition. We classified the development patterns of green credit in the Yellow River Basin into five types: mechanism construction, product innovation, consumer business expansion, rapid growth, and stable growth. Moreover, we have put forward specific policy suggestions for cities with different development patterns. The design process of this green credit development patterns is characterized by its ability to achieve meaningful outcomes while relying on fewer numbers of indicators. Furthermore, this approach boasts a significant degree of explanatory power, which may assist policy makers in comprehending the underlying mechanisms of regional low-carbon governance. Our findings provide a new perspective for the study of sustainable finance.