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Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue

Transmission heterogeneity, whereby a disproportionate fraction of pathogen transmission events result from a small number of individuals or geographic locations, is an inherent property of many, if not most, infectious disease systems. For vector-borne diseases, transmission heterogeneity is inferr...

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Autores principales: Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M, Morrison, Amy C, Paz-Soldan, Valerie, Stoddard, Steven T, Koval, William, Waller, Lance A, Alex Perkins, T, Lloyd, Alun L, Astete, Helvio, Elder, John, Scott, Thomas W, Kitron, Uriel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10003742/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36909820
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad024
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author Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M
Morrison, Amy C
Paz-Soldan, Valerie
Stoddard, Steven T
Koval, William
Waller, Lance A
Alex Perkins, T
Lloyd, Alun L
Astete, Helvio
Elder, John
Scott, Thomas W
Kitron, Uriel
author_facet Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M
Morrison, Amy C
Paz-Soldan, Valerie
Stoddard, Steven T
Koval, William
Waller, Lance A
Alex Perkins, T
Lloyd, Alun L
Astete, Helvio
Elder, John
Scott, Thomas W
Kitron, Uriel
author_sort Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M
collection PubMed
description Transmission heterogeneity, whereby a disproportionate fraction of pathogen transmission events result from a small number of individuals or geographic locations, is an inherent property of many, if not most, infectious disease systems. For vector-borne diseases, transmission heterogeneity is inferred from the distribution of the number of vectors per host, which could lead to significant bias in situations where vector abundance and transmission risk at the household do not correlate, as is the case with dengue virus (DENV). We used data from a contact tracing study to quantify the distribution of DENV acute infections within human activity spaces (AS), the collection of residential locations an individual routinely visits, and quantified measures of virus transmission heterogeneity from two consecutive dengue outbreaks (DENV-4 and DENV-2) that occurred in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Negative-binomial distributions and Pareto fractions showed evidence of strong overdispersion in the number of DENV infections by AS and identified super-spreading units (SSUs): i.e. AS where most infections occurred. Approximately 8% of AS were identified as SSUs, contributing to more than 50% of DENV infections. SSU occurrence was associated more with DENV-2 infection than with DENV-4, a predominance of inapparent infections (74% of all infections), households with high Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance, and high host susceptibility to the circulating DENV serotype. Marked heterogeneity in dengue case distribution, and the role of inapparent infections in defining it, highlight major challenges faced by reactive interventions if those transmission units contributing the most to transmission are not identified, prioritized, and effectively treated.
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spelling pubmed-100037422023-03-11 Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M Morrison, Amy C Paz-Soldan, Valerie Stoddard, Steven T Koval, William Waller, Lance A Alex Perkins, T Lloyd, Alun L Astete, Helvio Elder, John Scott, Thomas W Kitron, Uriel PNAS Nexus Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences Transmission heterogeneity, whereby a disproportionate fraction of pathogen transmission events result from a small number of individuals or geographic locations, is an inherent property of many, if not most, infectious disease systems. For vector-borne diseases, transmission heterogeneity is inferred from the distribution of the number of vectors per host, which could lead to significant bias in situations where vector abundance and transmission risk at the household do not correlate, as is the case with dengue virus (DENV). We used data from a contact tracing study to quantify the distribution of DENV acute infections within human activity spaces (AS), the collection of residential locations an individual routinely visits, and quantified measures of virus transmission heterogeneity from two consecutive dengue outbreaks (DENV-4 and DENV-2) that occurred in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Negative-binomial distributions and Pareto fractions showed evidence of strong overdispersion in the number of DENV infections by AS and identified super-spreading units (SSUs): i.e. AS where most infections occurred. Approximately 8% of AS were identified as SSUs, contributing to more than 50% of DENV infections. SSU occurrence was associated more with DENV-2 infection than with DENV-4, a predominance of inapparent infections (74% of all infections), households with high Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance, and high host susceptibility to the circulating DENV serotype. Marked heterogeneity in dengue case distribution, and the role of inapparent infections in defining it, highlight major challenges faced by reactive interventions if those transmission units contributing the most to transmission are not identified, prioritized, and effectively treated. Oxford University Press 2023-01-31 /pmc/articles/PMC10003742/ /pubmed/36909820 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad024 Text en © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com
spellingShingle Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences
Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M
Morrison, Amy C
Paz-Soldan, Valerie
Stoddard, Steven T
Koval, William
Waller, Lance A
Alex Perkins, T
Lloyd, Alun L
Astete, Helvio
Elder, John
Scott, Thomas W
Kitron, Uriel
Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue
title Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue
title_full Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue
title_fullStr Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue
title_full_unstemmed Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue
title_short Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue
title_sort inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue
topic Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10003742/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36909820
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad024
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