Accelerated cortical thinning precedes and predicts conversion to psychosis: The NAPLS3 longitudinal study of youth at clinical high-risk

Progressive grey matter loss has been demonstrated among clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals who convert to psychosis, but it is unknown whether these changes occur prior to psychosis onset. Identifying illness-related neurobiological mechanisms that occur prior to conversion is essential for targeted early intervention. Among participants in the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS3), this report investigated if steeper cortical thinning was observable prior to psychosis onset among CHR individuals who ultimately converted (CHR-C) and assessed the shortest possible time interval in which rates of cortical thinning differ between CHR-C, CHR non-converters (CHR-NC), and health controls (HC). 338 CHR-NC, 42 CHR-C, and 62 HC participants (age 19.3±4.2, 44.8% female, 52.5% racial/ethnic minority) completed up to 5 MRI scans across 8 months. Accelerated thinning among CHR-C compared to CHR-NC and HC was observed in multiple prefrontal, temporal, and parietal cortical regions. CHR-NC also exhibited accelerated cortical thinning compared to HC in several of these areas. Greater percent decrease in cortical thickness was observed among CHR-C compared to other groups across 2.9±1.8 months, on average, in several cortical areas. ROC analyses discriminating CHR-C from CHR-NC by percent thickness change in a left hemisphere region of interest, scanner, age, age(2), and sex had an AUC of 0.74, with model predictive power driven primarily by percent thickness change. Findings indicate that accelerated cortical thinning precedes psychosis onset and differentiates CHR-C from CHR-NC and HC across short time intervals. Mechanisms underlying cortical thinning may provide novel treatment targets prior to psychosis onset.