The value of quantitative plaque analysis based on coronary computed tomography angiography in predicting the percutaneous coronary intervention outcome of chronic total occlusion lesions

BACKGROUND: Due to the uncertainty of the success of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and the complexity of selecting suitable treatment cases, the interventional outcome of coronary chronic total occlusion (CTO) remains challenging. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of quantitative plaque analysis based on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in predicting the CTO-PCI outcome. METHODS: We retrospectively included 78 patients with CTO (80 lesions) confirmed by invasive coronary angiography from July 2016 to December 2018. All patients underwent PCI treatment according to standard practice. A total of 47 lesions in 47 patients were successfully treated with PCI. PCI failed in the remaining 33 lesions in 31 patients. The following conventional CCTA morphologic parameters were evaluated and compared between the PCI-success and PCI-failure groups: stump morphology; occlusion length, tortuous course; CTO lesion calcium; bridging collateral vessel; retrograde collateral vessel; the appearance of the occluded distal segment; and quantitative CTO plaque characteristics, including total plaque volume, calcified plaque (CP) volume, noncalcified plaque (NCP) volume, low-density noncalcified plaque (LDNCP) volume, and plaque length. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine independent parameters predictive of CTO-PCI outcomes. The predictive performances were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: The blunt stump was the only independent CCTA morphologic parameter to predict the outcome of CTO-PCI [odds ratio (OR): 10.807; P<0.001]. NCP volume (OR: 1.018; P<0.001), CP volume (OR: 1.026; P=0.049), and plaque length (OR: 1.058; P=0.037) were independent quantitative CTO plaque characteristics predictive of CTO-PCI outcomes. The plaque-based model combining NCP volume with CP volume and plaque length had a higher area under the curve (AUC =0.96) than did the morphology-based model that included blunt stump (AUC 0.68) in predicting the outcomes of CTO-PCI (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The CCTA-based plaque characteristics, including NCP volume, CP volume, and plaque length, outperformed morphologic parameters in predicting the CTO-PCI outcomes.