A glimpse into the future of esophageal carcinoma in the United States: predicting the future incidence until 2040 based on the current epidemiological data

BACKGROUND: Esophageal carcinoma is the sixth most common cause of death worldwide. With the changing paradigm of esophageal carcinoma, we sought to estimate the future burden of esophageal carcinoma by histology, age, sex, and race, which could help plan prevention, control, and treatment strategies for this cancer. METHODS: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 14 registries were utilized to obtain incidence data from 2000 to 2016. We applied age-period-cohort models to estimate future esophageal carcinoma incidence rates and the estimated disease burden by multiplying incidence forecasts by corresponding US Census population projections. RESULTS: Our forecasting study suggests that the incidence (per 100,000 persons) of esophageal adenocarcinoma for the age group 40–65 years will increase from 2.12 in 2021 to 3.86 in 2040, which corresponds to an 82% increase over the course of 19 years (3.2% per year, 95% CI: −2.3% to 9.1%). In addition, we found a considerable decrease in the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the current age groups 40–65 years (−2.7% per year) and >65 years (−4.6% per year). CONCLUSIONS: Preventive efforts of esophageal adenocarcinoma should primarily target males of age up to 65 years and females of current age 40 to 65 years who will make up the older age group (>65 years) in 2040.