Influencing factors and predictive model of live birth involving low-grade blastocyst frozen–thawed transfer: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Whether only low-grade blastocysts should undergo freeze–thaw transfer during the in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycle remains controversial; however, high-quality embryos cannot be obtained from some patients. Therefore, we aimed to identify factors that may affect the live birth. METHODS: A total of 662 couples with only low-grade blastocysts who voluntarily accepted freeze–thaw blastocyst transfer at a single reproductive center over a 7-year period were followed-up. According to the outcome after transfer, they were divided into live birth group and failed pregnancy group. A nomogram was constructed for predicting live births. RESULTS: Baseline information and clinical treatment characteristics of patients in the two groups were comparable. Fifty-two of the 662 cycles (7.9%) resulted in live birth. Paternal age, maternal basal luteinizing hormone level, endometrial preparation scheme, and blastocyst development days were independent factors that affected low-grade blastocyst freeze–thaw transfer outcomes. The predictive model constructed based on these four factors presented favorable calibration and discriminatory abilities (area under the curve, 0.734; 95% confidence interval, 0.781–0.813). CONCLUSIONS: For patients who exclusively underwent low-grade blastocyst freeze–thaw transfer, advanced paternal age and a high level of maternal basal luteinizing hormone adversely affected low-grade blastocyst freeze–thaw transfer outcomes. Artificial cycle preparation of the endometrium and day 5 blastocyst selection may improve the probability of live birth.