Blood glucose trajectories and incidence of diabetes mellitus in Ugandan people living with HIV initiated on dolutegravir

BACKGROUND: Following reports of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) experienced Ugandan people living with HIV (PLHIV) presenting with diabetic ketoacidosis weeks to months following a switch to dolutegravir (DTG), the Uganda Ministry of Health recommended withholding DTG in both ART naïve and experienced PLHIV with diabetes mellitus (T2DM), as well as 3-monthly blood glucose monitoring for patients with T2DM risk factors. We sought to determine if the risk of T2DM is indeed heightened in nondiabetic ART naïve Ugandan PLHIV over the first 48 weeks on DTG. METHODS: Between January and October 2021, 243 PLHIV without T2DM were initiated on DTG based ART for 48 weeks. Two-hour oral glucose tolerance tests (2-h OGTT) were performed at baseline, 12, and 36 weeks; fasting blood glucose (FBG) was measured at 24 and 48 weeks. The primary outcome was the incidence of T2DM. Secondary outcomes included: incidence of pre-Diabetes Mellitus (pre-DM), median change in FBG from baseline to week 48 and 2-h blood glucose (2hBG) from baseline to week 36. Linear regression models were used to determine adjusted differences in FBG and 2hBG from baseline to weeks 48 and 36 respectively. RESULTS: The incidence of T2DM was 4 cases per 1000 PY (1/243) and pre-DM, 240 cases per 1000 person years (PY) (54/243). There was a significant increase in FBG from baseline to week 48 [median change from baseline (FBG): 3.6 mg/dl, interquartile range (IQR): − 3.6, 7.2, p-value (p) = 0.005] and significant reduction in 2hBG (2hBG: − 7.26 mg/dl, IQR: − 21.6, 14.4, p = 0.024) at week 36. A high CD4 count and increased waist circumference were associated with 2hBG increase at week 36. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated a low incidence of T2DM in Ugandan ART-naïve patients receiving DTG. We also demonstrated that longitudinal changes in BG were independent of conventional risk factors of T2DM in the first 48 weeks of therapy. Restricting the use of dolutegravir in Ugandan ART naïve patients perceived to be high risk for diabetes mellitus may be unwarranted. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12981-023-00510-6.