Progressive changes in platelet counts and Fib-4 scores precede the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NASH patients

BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis and its complications develop in a subgroup of patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NASH). Early detection of liver fibrosis represents an important goal of clinical care. AIM: To test the hypothesis that the development of cirrhosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease patients is preceded by the long-term trends of platelet counts and Fib-4 scores. METHODS: We identified all patients in our healthcare system who had undergone fibrosis staging by liver biopsy or magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease during the past decade (n = 310). Platelet counts, serum glutamic-pyruvic transaminase and serum glutamic oxalacetic transaminase values preceding the staging tests were extracted from the electronic medical record system, and Fib-4 scores were calculated. Potential predictors of advanced fibrosis were evaluated using multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS: Significant decreases in platelet counts and increases in Fib-4 scores were observed in all fibrosis stages, particularly in patients with cirrhosis. In the liver biopsy group, the presence of cirrhosis was best predicted by the combination of the Fib-4 score at the time closest to staging (P < 0.0001), the presence of diabetes (P = 0.0001), and the correlation coefficient of the preceding time-dependent drop in platelet count (P = 0.044). In the MRE group, Fib4 score (P = 0.0025) and platelet drop (P = 0.0373) were significant predictors. In comparison, the time-dependent rise of the Fib-4 score did not contribute in a statistically significant way. CONCLUSION: Time-dependent changes in platelet counts and Fib-4 scores contribute to the prediction of cirrhosis in NASH patients with biopsy- or MRE-staged fibrosis. Their incorporation into predictive algorithms may assist in the earlier identification of high-risk patients.