Co-morbidity associated with development of severe COVID-19 before vaccine availability: a retrospective cohort study in the first pandemic year among the middle-aged and elderly in Jönköping county, Sweden

BACKGROUND: In preparation of future pandemics, it is important to recognise population-level determinants associated with development of severe illness before efficient vaccines and evidence-based therapeutic measures are available. The aim of this study was to identify pre-pandemic diagnoses recorded in a middle-aged and elderly population that were associated with development of severe COVID-19 during the first pandemic year. METHODS: A cohort study design was used. Severe COVID-19 was defined as a course of illness that resulted in hospital admission or death. A retrospective analysis was performed that comprised all individuals aged 39 years and older (N = 189,951) living in Jönköping County, Sweden. All diagnosed morbidity recorded in contacts with health care during the pre-pandemic year 2019 was used to identify which diagnoses that were associated with development of severe COVID-19 in the first pandemic year 2020. The analyses were performed separately for each diagnosis using binary logistic regression with adjustment for sex and age. RESULTS: Severe COVID-19 was suffered by 0.67% (N = 1,280) of the middle-aged and elderly population in the first pandemic year. Individuals previously diagnosed with dementia, cerebral palsy, kidney failure, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and obesity were at higher risk of developing severe COVID-19. For patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus, the odds ratio (OR) was 2.18 (95% confidence interval, 1.92–2.48). Type 1 diabetes mellitus was not associated with increased risk. CONCLUSION: Diagnoses suggesting service provision at long-term healthcare facilities and co-morbidity with components of the metabolic syndrome were associated with an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19 in a middle-aged and elderly population before vaccines were available. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-023-08115-0.