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How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic

Here, we combine international air travel passenger data with a standard epidemiological model of the initial 3 mo of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through March 2020; toward the end of which the entire world locked down). Using the information available during this initial phase of the pandemic, o...

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Autores principales: Stenseth, Nils Chr., Schlatte, Rudolf, Liu, Xiaoli, Pielke, Roger, Li, Ruiyun, Chen, Bin, Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Kusnezov, Dimitri, Gao, George F., Fraser, Christophe, Whittington, Jason D., Bai, Yuqi, Deng, Ke, Gong, Peng, Guan, Dabo, Xiao, Yixiong, Xu, Bing, Johnsen, Einar Broch
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10013804/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36848570
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220080120
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author Stenseth, Nils Chr.
Schlatte, Rudolf
Liu, Xiaoli
Pielke, Roger
Li, Ruiyun
Chen, Bin
Bjørnstad, Ottar N.
Kusnezov, Dimitri
Gao, George F.
Fraser, Christophe
Whittington, Jason D.
Bai, Yuqi
Deng, Ke
Gong, Peng
Guan, Dabo
Xiao, Yixiong
Xu, Bing
Johnsen, Einar Broch
author_facet Stenseth, Nils Chr.
Schlatte, Rudolf
Liu, Xiaoli
Pielke, Roger
Li, Ruiyun
Chen, Bin
Bjørnstad, Ottar N.
Kusnezov, Dimitri
Gao, George F.
Fraser, Christophe
Whittington, Jason D.
Bai, Yuqi
Deng, Ke
Gong, Peng
Guan, Dabo
Xiao, Yixiong
Xu, Bing
Johnsen, Einar Broch
author_sort Stenseth, Nils Chr.
collection PubMed
description Here, we combine international air travel passenger data with a standard epidemiological model of the initial 3 mo of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through March 2020; toward the end of which the entire world locked down). Using the information available during this initial phase of the pandemic, our model accurately describes the main features of the actual global development of the pandemic demonstrated by the high degree of coherence between the model and global data. The validated model allows for an exploration of alternative policy efficacies (reducing air travel and/or introducing different degrees of compulsory immigration quarantine upon arrival to a country) in delaying the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and thus is suggestive of similar efficacy in anticipating the spread of future global disease outbreaks. We show that a lesson from the recent pandemic is that reducing air travel globally is more effective in reducing the global spread than adopting immigration quarantine. Reducing air travel out of a source country has the most important effect regarding the spreading of the disease to the rest of the world. Based upon our results, we propose a digital twin as a further developed tool to inform future pandemic decision-making to inform measures intended to control the spread of disease agents of potential future pandemics. We discuss the design criteria for such a digital twin model as well as the feasibility of obtaining access to the necessary online data on international air travel.
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spelling pubmed-100138042023-03-15 How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic Stenseth, Nils Chr. Schlatte, Rudolf Liu, Xiaoli Pielke, Roger Li, Ruiyun Chen, Bin Bjørnstad, Ottar N. Kusnezov, Dimitri Gao, George F. Fraser, Christophe Whittington, Jason D. Bai, Yuqi Deng, Ke Gong, Peng Guan, Dabo Xiao, Yixiong Xu, Bing Johnsen, Einar Broch Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Physical Sciences Here, we combine international air travel passenger data with a standard epidemiological model of the initial 3 mo of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through March 2020; toward the end of which the entire world locked down). Using the information available during this initial phase of the pandemic, our model accurately describes the main features of the actual global development of the pandemic demonstrated by the high degree of coherence between the model and global data. The validated model allows for an exploration of alternative policy efficacies (reducing air travel and/or introducing different degrees of compulsory immigration quarantine upon arrival to a country) in delaying the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and thus is suggestive of similar efficacy in anticipating the spread of future global disease outbreaks. We show that a lesson from the recent pandemic is that reducing air travel globally is more effective in reducing the global spread than adopting immigration quarantine. Reducing air travel out of a source country has the most important effect regarding the spreading of the disease to the rest of the world. Based upon our results, we propose a digital twin as a further developed tool to inform future pandemic decision-making to inform measures intended to control the spread of disease agents of potential future pandemics. We discuss the design criteria for such a digital twin model as well as the feasibility of obtaining access to the necessary online data on international air travel. National Academy of Sciences 2023-02-27 2023-03-07 /pmc/articles/PMC10013804/ /pubmed/36848570 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220080120 Text en Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Physical Sciences
Stenseth, Nils Chr.
Schlatte, Rudolf
Liu, Xiaoli
Pielke, Roger
Li, Ruiyun
Chen, Bin
Bjørnstad, Ottar N.
Kusnezov, Dimitri
Gao, George F.
Fraser, Christophe
Whittington, Jason D.
Bai, Yuqi
Deng, Ke
Gong, Peng
Guan, Dabo
Xiao, Yixiong
Xu, Bing
Johnsen, Einar Broch
How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic
title How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic
title_full How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic
title_fullStr How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic
title_full_unstemmed How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic
title_short How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic
title_sort how to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic
topic Physical Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10013804/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36848570
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220080120
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