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Asynchrony rescues statistically optimal group decisions from information cascades through emergent leaders

It is usually assumed that information cascades are most likely to occur when an early but incorrect opinion spreads through the group. Here, we analyse models of confidence-sharing in groups and reveal the opposite result: simple but plausible models of naive-Bayesian decision-making exhibit inform...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Reina, Andreagiovanni, Bose, Thomas, Srivastava, Vaibhav, Marshall, James A. R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10014242/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36938538
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230175
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author Reina, Andreagiovanni
Bose, Thomas
Srivastava, Vaibhav
Marshall, James A. R.
author_facet Reina, Andreagiovanni
Bose, Thomas
Srivastava, Vaibhav
Marshall, James A. R.
author_sort Reina, Andreagiovanni
collection PubMed
description It is usually assumed that information cascades are most likely to occur when an early but incorrect opinion spreads through the group. Here, we analyse models of confidence-sharing in groups and reveal the opposite result: simple but plausible models of naive-Bayesian decision-making exhibit information cascades when group decisions are synchronous; however, when group decisions are asynchronous, the early decisions reached by Bayesian decision-makers tend to be correct and dominate the group consensus dynamics. Thus early decisions actually rescue the group from making errors, rather than contribute to it. We explore the likely realism of our assumed decision-making rule with reference to the evolution of mechanisms for aggregating social information, and known psychological and neuroscientific mechanisms.
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spelling pubmed-100142422023-03-16 Asynchrony rescues statistically optimal group decisions from information cascades through emergent leaders Reina, Andreagiovanni Bose, Thomas Srivastava, Vaibhav Marshall, James A. R. R Soc Open Sci Mathematics It is usually assumed that information cascades are most likely to occur when an early but incorrect opinion spreads through the group. Here, we analyse models of confidence-sharing in groups and reveal the opposite result: simple but plausible models of naive-Bayesian decision-making exhibit information cascades when group decisions are synchronous; however, when group decisions are asynchronous, the early decisions reached by Bayesian decision-makers tend to be correct and dominate the group consensus dynamics. Thus early decisions actually rescue the group from making errors, rather than contribute to it. We explore the likely realism of our assumed decision-making rule with reference to the evolution of mechanisms for aggregating social information, and known psychological and neuroscientific mechanisms. The Royal Society 2023-03-15 /pmc/articles/PMC10014242/ /pubmed/36938538 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230175 Text en © 2023 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Mathematics
Reina, Andreagiovanni
Bose, Thomas
Srivastava, Vaibhav
Marshall, James A. R.
Asynchrony rescues statistically optimal group decisions from information cascades through emergent leaders
title Asynchrony rescues statistically optimal group decisions from information cascades through emergent leaders
title_full Asynchrony rescues statistically optimal group decisions from information cascades through emergent leaders
title_fullStr Asynchrony rescues statistically optimal group decisions from information cascades through emergent leaders
title_full_unstemmed Asynchrony rescues statistically optimal group decisions from information cascades through emergent leaders
title_short Asynchrony rescues statistically optimal group decisions from information cascades through emergent leaders
title_sort asynchrony rescues statistically optimal group decisions from information cascades through emergent leaders
topic Mathematics
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10014242/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36938538
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230175
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