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Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters
OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic value of [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters in local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC) and establish a prognostic tool for lrNPC patients based on these [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters. METHODS: A total of 358 lrNPC patients seen from 2010 to 2019 at Sun Yat...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10017585/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36422647 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00330-022-09232-1 |
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author | Dongxiang, Wen Liting, Liu Yujing, Liang Meijuan, Luo Shanshan, Guo Longbin, Xiong Yanzhou, Chen Meiling, Chen Kang, Ning Haiqiang, Mai Linquan, Tang Qiuyan, Chen |
author_facet | Dongxiang, Wen Liting, Liu Yujing, Liang Meijuan, Luo Shanshan, Guo Longbin, Xiong Yanzhou, Chen Meiling, Chen Kang, Ning Haiqiang, Mai Linquan, Tang Qiuyan, Chen |
author_sort | Dongxiang, Wen |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic value of [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters in local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC) and establish a prognostic tool for lrNPC patients based on these [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters. METHODS: A total of 358 lrNPC patients seen from 2010 to 2019 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center with complete baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT data were retrospectively analyzed. Maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax), SUVmean, SUVpeak, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and heterogeneity index (HI) for recurrent nasopharynx tumors were included. Cox regression analysis was performed to select candidate variables. Subsequently, a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) for lrNPC patients was developed and internally validated. RESULTS: Multivariate Cox analysis results suggested that age ≥ 47 years (hazard ratio (HR), 1.62 (1.18-2.24); p = 0.003),with smoking history (HR, 1.41 (1.01–1.98); p = 0.046), recurrent T stage {[rT3 vs rT1/2: HR, 1.81 (1.04–3.12); p = 0.037]; [rT4 vs rT1/2: HR, 2.46 (1.32–4.60); p = 0.005]}, and TLG {[37.1–184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 2.26 (1.49–3.42); p < 0.001]; [>184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 4.31 (2.50–7.43); p < 0.001]) were independent predictors of OS. A 4-factor nomogram was generated to stratify patients into 3 risk groups. This novel model showed good discrimination with a high C-index (0.752, 95%CI: 0.714–0.790). In addition, the calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted probabilities and actual observations and decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that the nomogram was useful for clinical decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed that [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. The 4-factor prognostic model combing baseline patient characteristics with [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and clinical application potential. KEY POINTS: • [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. • The novel 4-factor nomogram for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and potential for clinical application. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-022-09232-1. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10017585 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-100175852023-03-17 Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters Dongxiang, Wen Liting, Liu Yujing, Liang Meijuan, Luo Shanshan, Guo Longbin, Xiong Yanzhou, Chen Meiling, Chen Kang, Ning Haiqiang, Mai Linquan, Tang Qiuyan, Chen Eur Radiol Head and Neck OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic value of [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters in local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC) and establish a prognostic tool for lrNPC patients based on these [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters. METHODS: A total of 358 lrNPC patients seen from 2010 to 2019 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center with complete baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT data were retrospectively analyzed. Maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax), SUVmean, SUVpeak, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and heterogeneity index (HI) for recurrent nasopharynx tumors were included. Cox regression analysis was performed to select candidate variables. Subsequently, a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) for lrNPC patients was developed and internally validated. RESULTS: Multivariate Cox analysis results suggested that age ≥ 47 years (hazard ratio (HR), 1.62 (1.18-2.24); p = 0.003),with smoking history (HR, 1.41 (1.01–1.98); p = 0.046), recurrent T stage {[rT3 vs rT1/2: HR, 1.81 (1.04–3.12); p = 0.037]; [rT4 vs rT1/2: HR, 2.46 (1.32–4.60); p = 0.005]}, and TLG {[37.1–184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 2.26 (1.49–3.42); p < 0.001]; [>184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 4.31 (2.50–7.43); p < 0.001]) were independent predictors of OS. A 4-factor nomogram was generated to stratify patients into 3 risk groups. This novel model showed good discrimination with a high C-index (0.752, 95%CI: 0.714–0.790). In addition, the calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted probabilities and actual observations and decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that the nomogram was useful for clinical decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed that [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. The 4-factor prognostic model combing baseline patient characteristics with [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and clinical application potential. KEY POINTS: • [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. • The novel 4-factor nomogram for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and potential for clinical application. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-022-09232-1. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-11-24 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10017585/ /pubmed/36422647 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00330-022-09232-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Head and Neck Dongxiang, Wen Liting, Liu Yujing, Liang Meijuan, Luo Shanshan, Guo Longbin, Xiong Yanzhou, Chen Meiling, Chen Kang, Ning Haiqiang, Mai Linquan, Tang Qiuyan, Chen Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters |
title | Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters |
title_full | Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters |
title_fullStr | Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters |
title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters |
title_short | Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters |
title_sort | prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)f]fdg pet/ct parameters |
topic | Head and Neck |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10017585/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36422647 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00330-022-09232-1 |
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