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Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic value of [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters in local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC) and establish a prognostic tool for lrNPC patients based on these [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters. METHODS: A total of 358 lrNPC patients seen from 2010 to 2019 at Sun Yat...

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Autores principales: Dongxiang, Wen, Liting, Liu, Yujing, Liang, Meijuan, Luo, Shanshan, Guo, Longbin, Xiong, Yanzhou, Chen, Meiling, Chen, Kang, Ning, Haiqiang, Mai, Linquan, Tang, Qiuyan, Chen
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10017585/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36422647
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00330-022-09232-1
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author Dongxiang, Wen
Liting, Liu
Yujing, Liang
Meijuan, Luo
Shanshan, Guo
Longbin, Xiong
Yanzhou, Chen
Meiling, Chen
Kang, Ning
Haiqiang, Mai
Linquan, Tang
Qiuyan, Chen
author_facet Dongxiang, Wen
Liting, Liu
Yujing, Liang
Meijuan, Luo
Shanshan, Guo
Longbin, Xiong
Yanzhou, Chen
Meiling, Chen
Kang, Ning
Haiqiang, Mai
Linquan, Tang
Qiuyan, Chen
author_sort Dongxiang, Wen
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic value of [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters in local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC) and establish a prognostic tool for lrNPC patients based on these [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters. METHODS: A total of 358 lrNPC patients seen from 2010 to 2019 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center with complete baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT data were retrospectively analyzed. Maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax), SUVmean, SUVpeak, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and heterogeneity index (HI) for recurrent nasopharynx tumors were included. Cox regression analysis was performed to select candidate variables. Subsequently, a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) for lrNPC patients was developed and internally validated. RESULTS: Multivariate Cox analysis results suggested that age ≥ 47 years (hazard ratio (HR), 1.62 (1.18-2.24); p = 0.003),with smoking history (HR, 1.41 (1.01–1.98); p = 0.046), recurrent T stage {[rT3 vs rT1/2: HR, 1.81 (1.04–3.12); p = 0.037]; [rT4 vs rT1/2: HR, 2.46 (1.32–4.60); p = 0.005]}, and TLG {[37.1–184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 2.26 (1.49–3.42); p < 0.001]; [>184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 4.31 (2.50–7.43); p < 0.001]) were independent predictors of OS. A 4-factor nomogram was generated to stratify patients into 3 risk groups. This novel model showed good discrimination with a high C-index (0.752, 95%CI: 0.714–0.790). In addition, the calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted probabilities and actual observations and decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that the nomogram was useful for clinical decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed that [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. The 4-factor prognostic model combing baseline patient characteristics with [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and clinical application potential. KEY POINTS: • [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. • The novel 4-factor nomogram for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and potential for clinical application. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-022-09232-1.
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spelling pubmed-100175852023-03-17 Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters Dongxiang, Wen Liting, Liu Yujing, Liang Meijuan, Luo Shanshan, Guo Longbin, Xiong Yanzhou, Chen Meiling, Chen Kang, Ning Haiqiang, Mai Linquan, Tang Qiuyan, Chen Eur Radiol Head and Neck OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic value of [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters in local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC) and establish a prognostic tool for lrNPC patients based on these [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters. METHODS: A total of 358 lrNPC patients seen from 2010 to 2019 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center with complete baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT data were retrospectively analyzed. Maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax), SUVmean, SUVpeak, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and heterogeneity index (HI) for recurrent nasopharynx tumors were included. Cox regression analysis was performed to select candidate variables. Subsequently, a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) for lrNPC patients was developed and internally validated. RESULTS: Multivariate Cox analysis results suggested that age ≥ 47 years (hazard ratio (HR), 1.62 (1.18-2.24); p = 0.003),with smoking history (HR, 1.41 (1.01–1.98); p = 0.046), recurrent T stage {[rT3 vs rT1/2: HR, 1.81 (1.04–3.12); p = 0.037]; [rT4 vs rT1/2: HR, 2.46 (1.32–4.60); p = 0.005]}, and TLG {[37.1–184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 2.26 (1.49–3.42); p < 0.001]; [>184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 4.31 (2.50–7.43); p < 0.001]) were independent predictors of OS. A 4-factor nomogram was generated to stratify patients into 3 risk groups. This novel model showed good discrimination with a high C-index (0.752, 95%CI: 0.714–0.790). In addition, the calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted probabilities and actual observations and decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that the nomogram was useful for clinical decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed that [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. The 4-factor prognostic model combing baseline patient characteristics with [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and clinical application potential. KEY POINTS: • [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. • The novel 4-factor nomogram for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and potential for clinical application. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-022-09232-1. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-11-24 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10017585/ /pubmed/36422647 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00330-022-09232-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Head and Neck
Dongxiang, Wen
Liting, Liu
Yujing, Liang
Meijuan, Luo
Shanshan, Guo
Longbin, Xiong
Yanzhou, Chen
Meiling, Chen
Kang, Ning
Haiqiang, Mai
Linquan, Tang
Qiuyan, Chen
Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters
title Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters
title_full Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters
title_fullStr Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters
title_short Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)F]FDG PET/CT parameters
title_sort prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [(18)f]fdg pet/ct parameters
topic Head and Neck
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10017585/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36422647
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00330-022-09232-1
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