Development of a nomogram for predicting pathological complete response in luminal breast cancer patients following neoadjuvant chemotherapy

BACKGROUND: Given the low chance of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in luminal breast cancer (LBC), the identification of predictive factors of pathological complete response (pCR) represents a challenge. A multicenter retrospective analysis was performed to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for pCR, based on pre-treatment clinicopathological features. METHODS: Clinicopathological data from stage I–III LBC patients undergone NACT and surgery were retrospectively collected. Descriptive statistics was adopted. A multivariate model was used to identify independent predictors of pCR. The obtained log-odds ratios (ORs) were adopted to derive weighting factors for the predictive nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic analysis was applied to determine the nomogram accuracy. The model was internally and externally validated. RESULTS: In the training set, data from 539 patients were gathered: pCR rate was 11.3% [95% confidence interval (CI): 8.6–13.9] (luminal A-like: 5.3%, 95% CI: 1.5–9.1, and luminal B-like: 13.1%, 95% CI: 9.8–13.4). The optimal Ki67 cutoff to predict pCR was 44% (area under the curve (AUC): 0.69; p < 0.001). Clinical stage I–II (OR: 3.67, 95% CI: 1.75–7.71, p = 0.001), Ki67 ⩾44% (OR: 3.00, 95% CI: 1.59–5.65, p = 0.001), and progesterone receptor (PR) <1% (OR: 2.49, 95% CI: 1.15–5.38, p = 0.019) were independent predictors of pCR, with high replication rates at internal validation (100%, 98%, and 87%, respectively). According to the nomogram, the probability of pCR ranged from 3.4% for clinical stage III, PR > 1%, and Ki67 <44% to 53.3% for clinical stage I–II, PR < 1%, and Ki67 ⩾44% (accuracy: AUC, 0.73; p < 0.0001). In the validation set (248 patients), the predictive performance of the model was confirmed (AUC: 0.7; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The combination of commonly available clinicopathological pre-NACT factors allows to develop a nomogram which appears to reliably predict pCR in LBC.