Prevalence Patterns and Onset Prediction of High Myopia for Children and Adolescents in Southern China via Real-World Screening Data: Retrospective School-Based Study

BACKGROUND: Patients with high myopia have an increased lifetime risk of complications. The prevalence patterns of high myopia in children and adolescents in southern China are unclear. Early identification of high-risk individuals is critical for reducing the occurrence and development of high myopia and avoiding the resulting complications. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the prevalence of high myopia in children and adolescents in southern China via real-world screening data and to predict its onset by studying the risk factors for high myopia based on machine learning. METHODS: This retrospective school-based study was conducted in 13 cities with different gross domestic products in southern China. Through data acquisition and filtering, we analyzed the prevalence of high myopia and its association with age, school stage, gross domestic product, and risk factors. A random forest algorithm was used to predict high myopia among schoolchildren and then assessed in an independent hold-out group. RESULTS: There were 1,285,609 participants (mean age 11.80, SD 3.07, range 6-20 years), of whom 658,516 (51.2%) were male. The overall prevalence of high myopia was 4.48% (2019), 4.88% (2020), and 3.17% (2021), with an increasing trend from the age of 11 to 17 years. The rates of high myopia increased from elementary schools to high schools but decreased at all school stages from 2019 to 2021. The coastal and southern cities had a higher proportion of high myopia, with an overall prevalence between 2.60% and 5.83%. Age, uncorrected distance visual acuity, and spherical equivalents were predictive factors for high myopia onset in schoolchildren. The random forest algorithm achieved a high accuracy of 0.948. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.975. Both indicated sufficient model efficacy. The performance of the model was validated in an external test with high accuracy (0.971) and a high AUC (0.957). CONCLUSIONS: High myopia had a high incidence in Guangdong Province. Its onset in children and adolescents was well predicted with the random forest algorithm. Efficient use of real-world data can contribute to the prevention and early diagnosis of high myopia.