Development and validation of combined Ki67 status prediction model for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma based on clinicoradiological features and MRI radiomics

PURPOSE: Incidence and mortality of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) have been increasing over the past few decades, and Ki67 is an adverse prognostic predictor and an attractive therapeutic target for ICC patients. Thus, we aim to develop and validate a combined Ki67 prediction model for ICC patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Preoperative contrast-enhanced MR images were collected from 178 patients with postoperative pathologically confirmed ICC, and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts in a ratio of 7:3 (124:54). A time-independent test cohort of 49 ICC patients was used for validation. Independent clinicoradiological features of Ki67 status were determined by multivariate analysis. Optimal radiomics features were selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis was used to construct combined models. The prediction efficacy of combined model was assessed by receiver operating characteristics curve, and verified by its calibration, decision and clinical impact curves. RESULTS: HBV (p = 0.022), arterial rim enhancement (p = 0.006) and enhancement pattern (p = 0.012) are independent clinicoradiological features. The radiomics model achieves good prediction efficacy in the training cohort (AUC = 0.860) and validation cohort (AUC = 0.843). The combined Ki67 prediction model incorporates clinicoradiological and radiomics features, and it yields desirable predictive efficiency in test cohort (AUC = 0.815). Decision curves and clinical impact curves further validate that the combined Ki67 prediction model can achieve net benefits in clinical work. CONCLUSION: The combined Ki67 model incorporating HBV, arterial rim enhancement, enhancement pattern and radiomics features is a potential biomarker in Ki67 prediction and stratification. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11547-023-01597-7.