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Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Fertility intentions are expected to decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic but limited empirical research on this topic has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal data from Kenya, with baseline (November 2019) and follow-up (June 2020) data, were used to 1) assess the extent to which indi...

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Autores principales: Zimmerman, Linnea A., Karp, Celia, Thiongo, Mary, Gichangi, Peter, Guiella, Georges, Gemmill, Alison, Moreau, Caroline, Bell, Suzanne O.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10021581/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36962268
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000147
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author Zimmerman, Linnea A.
Karp, Celia
Thiongo, Mary
Gichangi, Peter
Guiella, Georges
Gemmill, Alison
Moreau, Caroline
Bell, Suzanne O.
author_facet Zimmerman, Linnea A.
Karp, Celia
Thiongo, Mary
Gichangi, Peter
Guiella, Georges
Gemmill, Alison
Moreau, Caroline
Bell, Suzanne O.
author_sort Zimmerman, Linnea A.
collection PubMed
description Fertility intentions are expected to decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic but limited empirical research on this topic has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal data from Kenya, with baseline (November 2019) and follow-up (June 2020) data, were used to 1) assess the extent to which individual-level fertility intentions changed, and 2) examine how security, specifically economic and health security, affected fertility intentions. The final sample included 3,095 women. The primary outcomes were change in quantum and timing. Exploratory analyses described overall changes within the sample and logistic regression models assessed sociodemographic and COVID-19 related correlates of change, specifically income loss at the household level, food insecurity, and ability to socially distance. Approximately 85% of women reported consistent fertility intentions related to both the number and timing of childbearing. No COVID-19-related factors were related to changing quantum intentions. Women who reported chronic food insecurity had 4.78 times the odds of accelerating their desired timing to next birth compared to those who reported no food insecurity (95% CI: 1.53–14.93), with a significant interaction by wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to widespread changes in fertility intentions in Kenya, though the most vulnerable women may have accelerated their childbearing intentions.
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spelling pubmed-100215812023-03-17 Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya Zimmerman, Linnea A. Karp, Celia Thiongo, Mary Gichangi, Peter Guiella, Georges Gemmill, Alison Moreau, Caroline Bell, Suzanne O. PLOS Glob Public Health Research Article Fertility intentions are expected to decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic but limited empirical research on this topic has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal data from Kenya, with baseline (November 2019) and follow-up (June 2020) data, were used to 1) assess the extent to which individual-level fertility intentions changed, and 2) examine how security, specifically economic and health security, affected fertility intentions. The final sample included 3,095 women. The primary outcomes were change in quantum and timing. Exploratory analyses described overall changes within the sample and logistic regression models assessed sociodemographic and COVID-19 related correlates of change, specifically income loss at the household level, food insecurity, and ability to socially distance. Approximately 85% of women reported consistent fertility intentions related to both the number and timing of childbearing. No COVID-19-related factors were related to changing quantum intentions. Women who reported chronic food insecurity had 4.78 times the odds of accelerating their desired timing to next birth compared to those who reported no food insecurity (95% CI: 1.53–14.93), with a significant interaction by wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to widespread changes in fertility intentions in Kenya, though the most vulnerable women may have accelerated their childbearing intentions. Public Library of Science 2022-03-08 /pmc/articles/PMC10021581/ /pubmed/36962268 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000147 Text en © 2022 Zimmerman et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Zimmerman, Linnea A.
Karp, Celia
Thiongo, Mary
Gichangi, Peter
Guiella, Georges
Gemmill, Alison
Moreau, Caroline
Bell, Suzanne O.
Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya
title Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya
title_full Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya
title_fullStr Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya
title_full_unstemmed Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya
title_short Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya
title_sort stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the covid-19 pandemic in kenya
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10021581/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36962268
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000147
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