Machine learning models of tobacco susceptibility and current use among adolescents from 97 countries in the Global Youth Tobacco Survey, 2013-2017

Adolescents are particularly vulnerable to tobacco initiation and escalation. Identifying factors associated with adolescent tobacco susceptibility and use can guide tobacco prevention efforts. Novel machine learning (ML) approaches efficiently identify interactive relations among factors of tobacco risks and identify high-risk subpopulations that may benefit from targeted prevention interventions. Nationally representative cross-sectional 2013–2017 Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) data from 97 countries (28 high-income and 69 low-and middle-income countries) from 342,481 adolescents aged 13–15 years (weighted N = 52,817,455) were analyzed using ML regression tree models, accounting for sampling weights. Predictors included demographics (sex, age), geography (region, country-income), and self-reported exposure to tobacco marketing, secondhand smoke, and tobacco control policies. 11.9% (95% CI 11.1%-12.6%) of tobacco-naïve adolescents were susceptible to tobacco use and 11.7% (11.0%-12.5%) of adolescents reported using any tobacco product (cigarettes, other smoked tobacco, smokeless tobacco) in the past 30 days. Regression tree models found that exposure or receptivity to tobacco industry promotions and secondhand smoke exposure predicted increased risks of susceptibility and use, while support for smoke-free air policies predicted decreased risks of tobacco susceptibility and use. Anti-tobacco school education and health warning messages on product packs predicted susceptibility or use, but their protective effects were not evident across all adolescent subgroups. Sex, region, and country-income moderated the effects of tobacco promotion and control factors on susceptibility or use, showing higher rates of susceptibility and use in males and high-income countries, Africa and the Americas (susceptibility), and Europe and Southeast Asia (use). Tobacco policy-related factors robustly predicted both tobacco susceptibility and use in global adolescents, and interacted with adolescent characteristics and other environments in complex ways that stratified adolescents based on their tobacco risk. These findings emphasize the importance of efficient ML modeling of interactions in tobacco risk prediction and suggest a role for targeted prevention strategies for high-risk adolescents.