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Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Following the certification of the World Health Organization Region of Africa as free of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) in 2020, Afghanistan and Pakistan represent the last remaining WPV1 reservoirs. As efforts continue in these countries to progress to eradication, there is an opportunity for a...

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Autores principales: Mendes, Amalia, Whiteman, Ari, Bullard, Kelley, Sharif, Salmaan, Khurshid, Adnan, Alam, Muhammad Masroor, Salman, Muhammad, Ford, Vanessa, Blair, Taisha, Burns, Cara C., Ehrhardt, Derek, Jorba, Jaume, Hsu, Christopher H.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10021910/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36962349
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000251
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author Mendes, Amalia
Whiteman, Ari
Bullard, Kelley
Sharif, Salmaan
Khurshid, Adnan
Alam, Muhammad Masroor
Salman, Muhammad
Ford, Vanessa
Blair, Taisha
Burns, Cara C.
Ehrhardt, Derek
Jorba, Jaume
Hsu, Christopher H.
author_facet Mendes, Amalia
Whiteman, Ari
Bullard, Kelley
Sharif, Salmaan
Khurshid, Adnan
Alam, Muhammad Masroor
Salman, Muhammad
Ford, Vanessa
Blair, Taisha
Burns, Cara C.
Ehrhardt, Derek
Jorba, Jaume
Hsu, Christopher H.
author_sort Mendes, Amalia
collection PubMed
description Following the certification of the World Health Organization Region of Africa as free of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) in 2020, Afghanistan and Pakistan represent the last remaining WPV1 reservoirs. As efforts continue in these countries to progress to eradication, there is an opportunity for a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and epidemiological risk factors associated with continual WPV1 circulation in the region. Using poliovirus surveillance data from 2017–2019, we used pairwise comparisons of VP1 nucleotide sequences to illustrate the spatiotemporal WPV1 dispersal to identify key sources and destinations of potentially infected, highly mobile populations. We then predicted the odds of WPV1 detection at the district level using a generalized linear model with structural indicators of health, security, environment, and population demographics. We identified evidence of widespread population mobility based on WPV1 dispersal within and between the countries, and evidence indicating five districts in Afghanistan (Arghandab, Batikot, Bermel, Muhamandara and Nawzad) and four districts in Pakistan (Charsada, Dera Ismail Khan, Killa Abdullah and Khyber) act as cross-border WPV1 circulation reservoirs. We found that the probability of detecting WPV1 in a district increases with each armed conflict event (OR = 1·024, +- 0·008), level of food insecurity (OR = 1·531, +-0·179), and mean degrees Celsius during the months of greatest precipitation (OR = 1·079, +- 0·019). Our results highlight the multidisciplinary complexities contributing to the continued transmission of WPV1 in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We discuss the implications of our results, stressing the value of coordination during this final chapter of the wild polio virus eradication initiative.
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spelling pubmed-100219102023-03-17 Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan Mendes, Amalia Whiteman, Ari Bullard, Kelley Sharif, Salmaan Khurshid, Adnan Alam, Muhammad Masroor Salman, Muhammad Ford, Vanessa Blair, Taisha Burns, Cara C. Ehrhardt, Derek Jorba, Jaume Hsu, Christopher H. PLOS Glob Public Health Research Article Following the certification of the World Health Organization Region of Africa as free of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) in 2020, Afghanistan and Pakistan represent the last remaining WPV1 reservoirs. As efforts continue in these countries to progress to eradication, there is an opportunity for a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and epidemiological risk factors associated with continual WPV1 circulation in the region. Using poliovirus surveillance data from 2017–2019, we used pairwise comparisons of VP1 nucleotide sequences to illustrate the spatiotemporal WPV1 dispersal to identify key sources and destinations of potentially infected, highly mobile populations. We then predicted the odds of WPV1 detection at the district level using a generalized linear model with structural indicators of health, security, environment, and population demographics. We identified evidence of widespread population mobility based on WPV1 dispersal within and between the countries, and evidence indicating five districts in Afghanistan (Arghandab, Batikot, Bermel, Muhamandara and Nawzad) and four districts in Pakistan (Charsada, Dera Ismail Khan, Killa Abdullah and Khyber) act as cross-border WPV1 circulation reservoirs. We found that the probability of detecting WPV1 in a district increases with each armed conflict event (OR = 1·024, +- 0·008), level of food insecurity (OR = 1·531, +-0·179), and mean degrees Celsius during the months of greatest precipitation (OR = 1·079, +- 0·019). Our results highlight the multidisciplinary complexities contributing to the continued transmission of WPV1 in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We discuss the implications of our results, stressing the value of coordination during this final chapter of the wild polio virus eradication initiative. Public Library of Science 2022-06-13 /pmc/articles/PMC10021910/ /pubmed/36962349 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000251 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication.
spellingShingle Research Article
Mendes, Amalia
Whiteman, Ari
Bullard, Kelley
Sharif, Salmaan
Khurshid, Adnan
Alam, Muhammad Masroor
Salman, Muhammad
Ford, Vanessa
Blair, Taisha
Burns, Cara C.
Ehrhardt, Derek
Jorba, Jaume
Hsu, Christopher H.
Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan
title Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan
title_full Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan
title_fullStr Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan
title_full_unstemmed Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan
title_short Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan
title_sort spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in afghanistan and pakistan
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10021910/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36962349
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000251
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