Cargando…

Measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at a city level: An agent-based computational modelling study of the City of Natal

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic hit almost all cities in Brazil in early 2020 and lasted for several months. Despite the effort of local state and municipal governments, an inhomogeneous nationwide response resulted in a death toll amongst the highest record...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Lopes, Paulo Henrique, Wellacott, Liam, de Almeida, Leandro, Villavicencio, Lourdes Milagros Mendoza, Moreira, André Luiz de Lucena, Andrade, Dhiego Souto, Souza, Alyson Matheus de Carvalho, de Sousa, Rislene Katia Ramos, Silva, Priscila de Souza, Lima, Luciana, Lones, Michael, do Nascimento, José-Dias, Vargas, Patricia A., Moioli, Renan Cipriano, Blanco Figuerola, Wilfredo, Rennó-Costa, César
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10021960/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36962551
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000540
_version_ 1784908621676544000
author Lopes, Paulo Henrique
Wellacott, Liam
de Almeida, Leandro
Villavicencio, Lourdes Milagros Mendoza
Moreira, André Luiz de Lucena
Andrade, Dhiego Souto
Souza, Alyson Matheus de Carvalho
de Sousa, Rislene Katia Ramos
Silva, Priscila de Souza
Lima, Luciana
Lones, Michael
do Nascimento, José-Dias
Vargas, Patricia A.
Moioli, Renan Cipriano
Blanco Figuerola, Wilfredo
Rennó-Costa, César
author_facet Lopes, Paulo Henrique
Wellacott, Liam
de Almeida, Leandro
Villavicencio, Lourdes Milagros Mendoza
Moreira, André Luiz de Lucena
Andrade, Dhiego Souto
Souza, Alyson Matheus de Carvalho
de Sousa, Rislene Katia Ramos
Silva, Priscila de Souza
Lima, Luciana
Lones, Michael
do Nascimento, José-Dias
Vargas, Patricia A.
Moioli, Renan Cipriano
Blanco Figuerola, Wilfredo
Rennó-Costa, César
author_sort Lopes, Paulo Henrique
collection PubMed
description The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic hit almost all cities in Brazil in early 2020 and lasted for several months. Despite the effort of local state and municipal governments, an inhomogeneous nationwide response resulted in a death toll amongst the highest recorded globally. To evaluate the impact of the nonpharmaceutical governmental interventions applied by different cities—such as the closure of schools and businesses in general—in the evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed a full-sized agent-based epidemiological model adjusted to the singularities of particular cities. The model incorporates detailed demographic information, mobility networks segregated by economic segments, and restricting bills enacted during the pandemic period. As a case study, we analyzed the early response of the City of Natal—a midsized state capital—to the pandemic. Although our results indicate that the government response could be improved, the restrictive mobility acts saved many lives. The simulations show that a detailed analysis of alternative scenarios can inform policymakers about the most relevant measures for similar pandemic surges and help develop future response protocols.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-10021960
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-100219602023-03-17 Measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at a city level: An agent-based computational modelling study of the City of Natal Lopes, Paulo Henrique Wellacott, Liam de Almeida, Leandro Villavicencio, Lourdes Milagros Mendoza Moreira, André Luiz de Lucena Andrade, Dhiego Souto Souza, Alyson Matheus de Carvalho de Sousa, Rislene Katia Ramos Silva, Priscila de Souza Lima, Luciana Lones, Michael do Nascimento, José-Dias Vargas, Patricia A. Moioli, Renan Cipriano Blanco Figuerola, Wilfredo Rennó-Costa, César PLOS Glob Public Health Research Article The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic hit almost all cities in Brazil in early 2020 and lasted for several months. Despite the effort of local state and municipal governments, an inhomogeneous nationwide response resulted in a death toll amongst the highest recorded globally. To evaluate the impact of the nonpharmaceutical governmental interventions applied by different cities—such as the closure of schools and businesses in general—in the evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed a full-sized agent-based epidemiological model adjusted to the singularities of particular cities. The model incorporates detailed demographic information, mobility networks segregated by economic segments, and restricting bills enacted during the pandemic period. As a case study, we analyzed the early response of the City of Natal—a midsized state capital—to the pandemic. Although our results indicate that the government response could be improved, the restrictive mobility acts saved many lives. The simulations show that a detailed analysis of alternative scenarios can inform policymakers about the most relevant measures for similar pandemic surges and help develop future response protocols. Public Library of Science 2022-10-14 /pmc/articles/PMC10021960/ /pubmed/36962551 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000540 Text en © 2022 Lopes et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Lopes, Paulo Henrique
Wellacott, Liam
de Almeida, Leandro
Villavicencio, Lourdes Milagros Mendoza
Moreira, André Luiz de Lucena
Andrade, Dhiego Souto
Souza, Alyson Matheus de Carvalho
de Sousa, Rislene Katia Ramos
Silva, Priscila de Souza
Lima, Luciana
Lones, Michael
do Nascimento, José-Dias
Vargas, Patricia A.
Moioli, Renan Cipriano
Blanco Figuerola, Wilfredo
Rennó-Costa, César
Measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at a city level: An agent-based computational modelling study of the City of Natal
title Measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at a city level: An agent-based computational modelling study of the City of Natal
title_full Measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at a city level: An agent-based computational modelling study of the City of Natal
title_fullStr Measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at a city level: An agent-based computational modelling study of the City of Natal
title_full_unstemmed Measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at a city level: An agent-based computational modelling study of the City of Natal
title_short Measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at a city level: An agent-based computational modelling study of the City of Natal
title_sort measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the sars-cov-2 pandemic at a city level: an agent-based computational modelling study of the city of natal
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10021960/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36962551
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000540
work_keys_str_mv AT lopespaulohenrique measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT wellacottliam measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT dealmeidaleandro measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT villavicenciolourdesmilagrosmendoza measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT moreiraandreluizdelucena measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT andradedhiegosouto measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT souzaalysonmatheusdecarvalho measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT desousarislenekatiaramos measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT silvaprisciladesouza measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT limaluciana measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT lonesmichael measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT donascimentojosedias measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT vargaspatriciaa measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT moiolirenancipriano measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT blancofiguerolawilfredo measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal
AT rennocostacesar measuringtheimpactofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsonthesarscov2pandemicatacitylevelanagentbasedcomputationalmodellingstudyofthecityofnatal