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The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria
Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cholera cases in Africa, with numerous socioeconomic and environmental risk factors. Less investigated are the role of extreme events, despite recent work showing their potential importance. To address this gap, we used a machine learning approa...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10022205/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36962831 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000869 |
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author | Charnley, Gina E. C. Yennan, Sebastian Ochu, Chinwe Kelman, Ilan Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. Murray, Kris A. |
author_facet | Charnley, Gina E. C. Yennan, Sebastian Ochu, Chinwe Kelman, Ilan Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. Murray, Kris A. |
author_sort | Charnley, Gina E. C. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cholera cases in Africa, with numerous socioeconomic and environmental risk factors. Less investigated are the role of extreme events, despite recent work showing their potential importance. To address this gap, we used a machine learning approach to understand the risks and thresholds for cholera outbreaks and extreme events, taking into consideration pre-existing vulnerabilities. We estimated time varying reproductive number (R) from cholera incidence in Nigeria and used a machine learning approach to evaluate its association with extreme events (conflict, flood, drought) and pre-existing vulnerabilities (poverty, sanitation, healthcare). We then created a traffic-light system for cholera outbreak risk, using three hypothetical traffic-light scenarios (Red, Amber and Green) and used this to predict R. The system highlighted potential extreme events and socioeconomic thresholds for outbreaks to occur. We found that reducing poverty and increasing access to sanitation lessened vulnerability to increased cholera risk caused by extreme events (monthly conflicts and the Palmers Drought Severity Index). The main limitation is the underreporting of cholera globally and the potential number of cholera cases missed in the data used here. Increasing access to sanitation and decreasing poverty reduced the impact of extreme events in terms of cholera outbreak risk. The results here therefore add further evidence of the need for sustainable development for disaster prevention and mitigation and to improve health and quality of life. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10022205 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-100222052023-03-17 The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria Charnley, Gina E. C. Yennan, Sebastian Ochu, Chinwe Kelman, Ilan Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. Murray, Kris A. PLOS Glob Public Health Research Article Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cholera cases in Africa, with numerous socioeconomic and environmental risk factors. Less investigated are the role of extreme events, despite recent work showing their potential importance. To address this gap, we used a machine learning approach to understand the risks and thresholds for cholera outbreaks and extreme events, taking into consideration pre-existing vulnerabilities. We estimated time varying reproductive number (R) from cholera incidence in Nigeria and used a machine learning approach to evaluate its association with extreme events (conflict, flood, drought) and pre-existing vulnerabilities (poverty, sanitation, healthcare). We then created a traffic-light system for cholera outbreak risk, using three hypothetical traffic-light scenarios (Red, Amber and Green) and used this to predict R. The system highlighted potential extreme events and socioeconomic thresholds for outbreaks to occur. We found that reducing poverty and increasing access to sanitation lessened vulnerability to increased cholera risk caused by extreme events (monthly conflicts and the Palmers Drought Severity Index). The main limitation is the underreporting of cholera globally and the potential number of cholera cases missed in the data used here. Increasing access to sanitation and decreasing poverty reduced the impact of extreme events in terms of cholera outbreak risk. The results here therefore add further evidence of the need for sustainable development for disaster prevention and mitigation and to improve health and quality of life. Public Library of Science 2022-12-14 /pmc/articles/PMC10022205/ /pubmed/36962831 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000869 Text en © 2022 Charnley et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Charnley, Gina E. C. Yennan, Sebastian Ochu, Chinwe Kelman, Ilan Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. Murray, Kris A. The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria |
title | The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria |
title_full | The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria |
title_fullStr | The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria |
title_full_unstemmed | The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria |
title_short | The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria |
title_sort | impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in nigeria |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10022205/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36962831 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000869 |
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