Clinical features and risk factors of plastic bronchitis caused by refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children: a practical nomogram prediction model

Early assessment of refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP) with plastic bronchitis (PB) allows timely removal of casts using fiberoptic bronchoscopic manipulation, which relieves airway obstruction and limit sequelae development. This study aimed to analyze clinical data for risk factors and develop a nomogram for early predictive evaluation of RMPP with PB. The clinical data of 1-14 year-old patients with RMPP were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were classified into a PB or non-PB group. The general characteristics, clinical symptoms, laboratory test results, imaging findings, and microscopic changes of the two groups were compared. A statistical analysis of the risk factors for developing PB was performed, and a nomogram model of risk factors was constructed. Of 120 patients with RMPP included, 68 and 52 were in the non-PB and PB groups, respectively. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, fever before bronchoscopy, extrapulmonary complications, pleural effusion, cough duration, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels were identified as risk factors. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of the multivariate analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of the nomogram was 0.944 (95% confidence interval: 0.779-0.962). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test displayed good calibration of the nomogram (p = 0.376, R2 = 0.723). Conclusion: The nomogram model constructed in this study based on five risk factors (persistent fever before bronchoscopy, extrapulmonary complications, pleural effusion, cough duration, and LDH levels) prior to bronchoscopy can be used for the early identification of RMPP-induced PB.