Post-COVID-19 pandemic and the Paris agreement: a socioeconomic analysis and carbon emissions forecasting in developed and developing countries

The COVID-19 pandemic caused profound impacts on the global economy, resulting in a sharp drop in carbon emissions as energy demand fell. The emissions reduction due to past extreme events often follows with a rebound after the economy recovers, but the pandemic’s impacts on the long-term carbon emissions trend remain unknown. This study forecasts the carbon emissions of Group of Seven (G7) as developed countries and Emerging Seven (E7) as developing countries using socioeconomic indicators and artificial intelligence-powered predictive analytics to assess the pandemic’s impacts on the long-term carbon trajectory curve and their progress toward achieving the Paris Agreement goals. Most E7’s carbon emissions have strong positive correlations (> 0.8) with the socioeconomic indicators, whereas most G7’s correlate negatively (> 0.6) due to their decoupled economic growth from carbon emissions. The forecasts show higher growth rates in the E7’s carbon emissions after the rebound in the pandemic scenario compared to the pandemic-free scenario, while the impact on the G7’s carbon emissions is negligible. The overall impact of the pandemic outbreak on long-term carbon emissions is small. Still, its short-term positive impact on the environment should not be misunderstood, and stringent emissions reduction policies must be implemented urgently to ensure the achievement of Paris Agreement goals. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: Research methodology for assessing the pandemic's impacts on the G7 and E7 countries' long-term carbon trajectory curve. [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10098-023-02508-0.