Price guidance and discovery of the Chinese stock index Futures: Based on the rising, falling and fluctuating states

Stock index futures have been around for more than 12 years in the Chinese market, but there are conflicting viewpoints on the role of Chinese stock index futures in the market. Many crises, including COVID-19, have heightened the financial system's vulnerability and instability. Do China's stock index futures play a role in stabilizing the market and discovering prices in turbulent times? This study employs a combination of VEC, PT, and IS methodologies to investigate the lead-lag relation and price discovery ability of stock index futures markets. By evaluating price interactions in three different scenarios, we reveal that stock index futures play a prominent role in price discovery, particularly in markets with excessive volatility. However, their impact on price discovery is weaker during stable market conditions. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to categorize the Chinese stock market into different states, providing valuable insights into the price discovery function of stock index futures. Our findings have important implications for policymakers and investors, as they highlight the need for increased attention to market manipulation and excessive speculation during volatile market conditions to protect the interests of investors.