Lifetime quality-adjusted life years lost due to genital herpes acquired in the United States in 2018: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND: Genital herpes (GH), caused by herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 (HSV-1, HSV-2), is a common sexually transmitted disease associated with adverse health outcomes. Symptoms associated with GH outbreaks can be reduced by antiviral medications, but the infection is incurable and lifelong. In this study, we estimate the long-term health impacts of GH in the United States using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost. METHODS: We used probability trees to model the natural history of GH secondary to infection with HSV-1 and HSV-2 among people aged 18–49 years. We modelled the following outcomes to quantify the major causes of health losses following infection: symptomatic herpes outbreaks, psychosocial impacts associated with diagnosis and recurrences, urinary retention caused by sacral radiculitis, aseptic meningitis, Mollaret's meningitis, and neonatal herpes. The model was parameterized based on published literature on the natural history of GH. We summarized losses of health by computing the lifetime number of QALYs lost per genital HSV-1 and HSV-2 infection, and we combined this information with incidence estimates to compute the total lifetime number of QALYs lost due to infections acquired in 2018 in the United States. FINDINGS: We estimated 0.05 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.02–0.08) lifetime QALYs lost per incident GH infection acquired in 2018, equivalent to losing 0.05 years or about 18 days of life for one person with perfect health. The average number of QALYs lost per GH infection due to genital HSV-1 and HSV-2 was 0.01 (95% UI 0.01–0.02) and 0.05 (95% UI 0.02–0.09), respectively. The burden of genital HSV-1 is higher among women, while the burden of HSV-2 is higher among men. QALYs lost per neonatal herpes infection was estimated to be 7.93 (95% UI 6.63–9.19). At the population level, the total estimated lifetime QALYs lost as a result of GH infections acquired in 2018 was 33,100 (95% UI 12,600–67,900) due to GH in adults and 3,140 (95% UI 2,260–4,140) due to neonatal herpes. Results were most sensitive to assumptions on the magnitude of the disutility associated with post-diagnosis psychosocial distress and symptomatic recurrences. INTERPRETATION: GH is associated with substantial health losses in the United States. Results from this study can be used to compare the burden of GH to other diseases, and it provides inputs that may be used in studies on the health impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions that aim to reduce the burden of GH. FUNDING: The 10.13039/100000130Center for Disease Control and Prevention