Glycemic control predicts SARS-CoV-2 prognosis in diabetic subjects

AIM: The coronavirus disease (COVID)‐19 incidence was higher in diabetes mellitus (DM), although several differences should be considered on the basis of characteristics of cohorts evaluated. This study was designed to evaluate the prevalence and potential consequences of COVID-19 in a large diabetic population in Northern Italy. DESIGN: Observational, longitudinal, retrospective, clinical study. METHODS: Subjects with both type 1 and type 2 DM living in the Province of Modena and submitted to at least one SARS-CoV-2 swab between March 2020 and March 2021 were included. Data were extracted from the Hospital data warehouse. RESULTS: 9553 diabetic subjects were enrolled (age 68.8 ± 14.1 years, diabetes duration 11.0 ± 6.9 years, glycated hemoglobin 57.2 ± 16.2 mmol/mol). COVID-19 was detected in 2302 patients (24.1%) with a death rate of 8.9%. The mean age and diabetes duration were significantly lower in infected versus non-infected patients. SARS-CoV-2 infection was more frequent in youngest people, according to quartile of age and retirement pension age of 65 years. No differences were detected considering sex. Higher HbA1c was detected in infected compared to non-infected patient. Death was predicted by diabetes duration and HbA1c. ROC analyses for death risk showed significant threshold for diabetes duration (10.9 years) and age (74.4 years). CONCLUSION: In our cohort, SARS-CoV-2 infection correlates with age, diabetes duration and disease control. Diabetic patients with COVID-19 should be carefully followed when older than 74 years and with more than 10 years of DM duration. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00592-023-02073-4.