Islet function changes of post-glucose-challenge relate closely to 15 years mortality of elderly men with a history of hyperglycemia

AIMS: We aimed to investigate the relationship between islet function changes during a glucose challenge and 15-year mortality in elderly men. METHODS: Elderly men who did the oral glucose tolerance test in 2005 owing to an abnormal glucose history without diabetes were included. Changes in insulin resistance and secretion were evaluated using the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) of fast, post-load, and ratios. Comparisons between the dead and the survival groups were analyzed using the Student's t-test (continuous variables) or χ2 test (Categorical variables). Single-factor logistic regression was used to identify the possible affecting factors. Multifactorial logistic regression was used to identify the independent risk factors in total population and in the subgroups. ROC curve was used to assess the predictive ability of risk factor and to determine the cut-off value. RESULTS: Of the 220 elderly men, 67 died according to 15-year retrospection. Age (OR = 1.243, P = 0.000), diastolic pressure (OR = 0.958, P = 0.027), and HOMA-IR (2 h/0 h) (OR = 1.040, P = 0.010) were independent risk factors for 15-year mortality. Subgroup analysis showed that HOMA-IR (2 h/0 h) was an obvious risk factor, especially for normal glucose tolerance (OR = 1.060, P = 0.030), age 60–70 years (OR = 1.068, P = 0.005), and hypertension (OR = 1.048, P = 0.013); HOMA-β (2 h/0 h) showed some protective effects in the impaired glucose regulation subgroup (OR = 0.779, P = 0.057). HOMA-IR (2 h/0 h) cut-off value was 15. CONCLUSIONS: HOMA-IR (2 h/0 h) higher than 15 was an independent risk factor for 15-year mortality in elderly men with hyperglycemia history.