Analysis of urinary C–C motif chemokine ligand 14 (CCL14) and first-generation urinary biomarkers for predicting renal recovery from acute kidney injury: a prospective exploratory study

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent syndrome in the intensive care unit (ICU). AKI patients with kidney function recovery have better short-term and long-term prognoses compared with those with non-recovery. Numerous studies focus on biomarkers to distinguish them. To better understand the predictive performance of urinary biomarkers of renal recovery in patients with AKI, we evaluated C–C motif chemokine ligand 14 (CCL14) and two first-generation biomarkers (cell cycle arrest biomarkers and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin) in two ICU settings. METHODS: We performed a prospective study to analyze urinary biomarkers for predicting renal recovery from AKI. Patients who developed AKI after ICU admission were enrolled and urinary biomarkers including tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 (TIMP-2), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7 (IGFBP7), CCL14, and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) were detected on the day of AKI diagnosis. The primary endpoint was non-recovery from AKI within 7 days. The individual discriminative ability of CCL14, [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] and NGAL to predict renal non-recovery were evaluated by the area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). RESULTS: Of 164 AKI patients, 64 (39.0%) failed to recover from AKI onset. CCL14 showed a fair prediction ability for renal non-recovery with an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI 0.63–0.77, p < 0.001). [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] showed the best prediction for renal non-recovery with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.71–0.84, p < 0.001). However, NGAL had no use in predicting non-recovery with an AUC of 0.53 (95% CI 0.45–0.60, p = 0.562). A two-parameter model (non-renal SOFA score and AKI stage) predicted renal non-recovery with an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.77–0.83, p = 0.004). When [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] was combined with the clinical factors, the AUC was significantly improved to 0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.87, p = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Urinary CCL14 and [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] were fair predictors of renal non-recovery from AKI. Combing urinary [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] with a clinical model consisting of non-renal SOFA score and AKI stage enhanced the predictive power for renal non-recovery. Urinary CCL14 showed no significant advantage in predicting renal non-recovery compared to [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7]. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40560-023-00659-2.