Using multivariate nonlinear mixed-effects model to investigate factors influencing symptom improvement after high tibial osteotomy in combination with bone marrow concentrate injection for medial compartment knee osteoarthritis: a prospective, open-label study

PURPOSE: To investigate the effects of various demographic, structural, radiographic, and clinical factors on the prognosis of patients with medial compartmental knee osteoarthritis with varus deformity undergoing medial opening wedge high tibial osteotomy (HTO) in combination with bone marrow concentrate (BMC) injection. METHODS: In this prospective study, 20 patients underwent medial opening wedge HTO in combination with BMC injection with 12 months of follow-up. The structural and radiographic outcomes were evaluated by femorotibial angle and posterior tibial slope angle. The clinical outcomes were evaluated by visual analogue scale (VAS), Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC), and The Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS). Multivariate nonlinear mixed-effects models with asymptotic regressions were used to model the trajectory of symptom improvement. RESULTS: Medial opening wedge HTO in combination with BMC corrected the malalignment of the knee and led to significant symptom relief. The improvement of clinical symptoms reached a plateau 6 months after the surgery. Greater symptom severity at baseline and lower Kellgren-Lawrance (KL) grades were correlated with better post-operative clinical outcomes. Body-Mass-Index (BMI), femorotibial angle, age, and sex may also play a role in influencing the extent of symptom relief. CONCLUSION: Symptom severity at baseline is important for prognosis prediction. In clinical practice, we suggest that the evaluation of clinical features and functional status of the patients be more emphasised. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12891-023-06314-z.