Cargando…
Nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis
BACKGROUND: Fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis (FNEC) is the most serious subtype of NEC and has a high mortality rate and a high incidence of sequelae. Onset prediction can help in the establishment of a customized treatment strategy. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a predictive nomogram...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2023
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10027821/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36939896 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00383-023-05435-9 |
_version_ | 1784909797543378944 |
---|---|
author | Li, Weibo Zhang, Chen Li, Wenli Qin, Fanyue Gao, Xiang Xu, Falin |
author_facet | Li, Weibo Zhang, Chen Li, Wenli Qin, Fanyue Gao, Xiang Xu, Falin |
author_sort | Li, Weibo |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis (FNEC) is the most serious subtype of NEC and has a high mortality rate and a high incidence of sequelae. Onset prediction can help in the establishment of a customized treatment strategy. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a predictive nomogram for FNEC. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observation to study the clinical data of neonates diagnosed with NEC (Bell stage ≥ IIB). Neonates were divided into the FNEC and NEC groups. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to construct the nomogram model. The performance of the nomogram was assessed using area under the curve, calibration analysis, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: A total of 206 neonate cases were included, among which 40 (19.4%) fulfilled the definition of FNEC. The identified predictors were assisted ventilation after NEC onset; shock at NEC onset; feeding volumes before NEC onset; neutrophil counts on the day of NEC onset; and neutrophil, lymphocyte, and monocyte counts on day 1 after NEC onset. The nomogram exhibited good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.884 (95% CI 0.825–0.943). The predictive model was well calibrated. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical usefulness of this nomogram. CONCLUSION: A nomogram with a potentially effective application was developed to facilitate the individualized prediction of FNEC, with the hope of providing further direction for the early diagnosis of FNEC and timing of intervention. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00383-023-05435-9. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10027821 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-100278212023-03-22 Nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis Li, Weibo Zhang, Chen Li, Wenli Qin, Fanyue Gao, Xiang Xu, Falin Pediatr Surg Int Original Article BACKGROUND: Fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis (FNEC) is the most serious subtype of NEC and has a high mortality rate and a high incidence of sequelae. Onset prediction can help in the establishment of a customized treatment strategy. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a predictive nomogram for FNEC. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observation to study the clinical data of neonates diagnosed with NEC (Bell stage ≥ IIB). Neonates were divided into the FNEC and NEC groups. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to construct the nomogram model. The performance of the nomogram was assessed using area under the curve, calibration analysis, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: A total of 206 neonate cases were included, among which 40 (19.4%) fulfilled the definition of FNEC. The identified predictors were assisted ventilation after NEC onset; shock at NEC onset; feeding volumes before NEC onset; neutrophil counts on the day of NEC onset; and neutrophil, lymphocyte, and monocyte counts on day 1 after NEC onset. The nomogram exhibited good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.884 (95% CI 0.825–0.943). The predictive model was well calibrated. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical usefulness of this nomogram. CONCLUSION: A nomogram with a potentially effective application was developed to facilitate the individualized prediction of FNEC, with the hope of providing further direction for the early diagnosis of FNEC and timing of intervention. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00383-023-05435-9. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2023-03-20 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10027821/ /pubmed/36939896 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00383-023-05435-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Original Article Li, Weibo Zhang, Chen Li, Wenli Qin, Fanyue Gao, Xiang Xu, Falin Nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis |
title | Nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis |
title_full | Nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis |
title_fullStr | Nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis |
title_full_unstemmed | Nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis |
title_short | Nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis |
title_sort | nomogram for predicting fulminant necrotizing enterocolitis |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10027821/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36939896 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00383-023-05435-9 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT liweibo nomogramforpredictingfulminantnecrotizingenterocolitis AT zhangchen nomogramforpredictingfulminantnecrotizingenterocolitis AT liwenli nomogramforpredictingfulminantnecrotizingenterocolitis AT qinfanyue nomogramforpredictingfulminantnecrotizingenterocolitis AT gaoxiang nomogramforpredictingfulminantnecrotizingenterocolitis AT xufalin nomogramforpredictingfulminantnecrotizingenterocolitis |