Use of machine learning-based integration to develop a monocyte differentiation-related signature for improving prognosis in patients with sepsis

BACKGROUND: Although significant advances have been made in intensive care medicine and antibacterial treatment, sepsis is still a common disease with high mortality. The condition of sepsis patients changes rapidly, and each hour of delay in the administration of appropriate antibiotic treatment can lead to a 4–7% increase in fatality. Therefore, early diagnosis and intervention may help improve the prognosis of patients with sepsis. METHODS: We obtained single-cell sequencing data from 12 patients. This included 14,622 cells from four patients with bacterial infectious sepsis and eight patients with sepsis admitted to the ICU for other various reasons. Monocyte differentiation trajectories were analyzed using the “monocle” software, and differentiation-related genes were identified. Based on the expression of differentiation-related genes, 99 machine-learning combinations of prognostic signatures were obtained, and risk scores were calculated for all patients. The “scissor” software was used to associate high-risk and low-risk patients with individual cells. The “cellchat” software was used to demonstrate the regulatory relationships between high-risk and low-risk cells in a cellular communication network. The diagnostic value and prognostic predictive value of Enah/Vasp-like (EVL) were determined. Clinical validation of the results was performed with 40 samples. The “CBNplot” software based on Bayesian network inference was used to construct EVL regulatory networks. RESULTS: We systematically analyzed three cell states during monocyte differentiation. The differential analysis identified 166 monocyte differentiation-related genes. Among the 99 machine-learning combinations of prognostic signatures constructed, the Lasso + CoxBoost signature with 17 genes showed the best prognostic prediction performance. The highest percentage of high-risk cells was found in state one. Cell communication analysis demonstrated regulatory networks between high-risk and low-risk cell subpopulations and other immune cells. We then determined the diagnostic and prognostic value of EVL stabilization in multiple external datasets. Experiments with clinical samples demonstrated the accuracy of this analysis. Finally, Bayesian network inference revealed potential network mechanisms of EVL regulation. CONCLUSIONS: Monocyte differentiation-related prognostic signatures based on the Lasso + CoxBoost combination were able to accurately predict the prognostic status of patients with sepsis. In addition, low EVL expression was associated with poor prognosis in sepsis. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s10020-023-00634-5.