Long‐term seed bank persistence in a stochastic desert environment

Seed banks, the collection of viable seeds in the soil, are particularly important determinants of population survival in highly variable environments. Predictions of increased stochasticity in the amount and timing of precipitation in desert environments raise the question of how seed banks of desert species will respond to climate change, and ultimately, whether these species will persist. Here, we present data from our long‐term studies of germination requirements and seed bank dynamics in a rare desert gypsophile perennial, Arctomecon californica (Las Vegas bearpoppy). Arctomecon californica is a relatively short‐lived plant that recruits from seed in sequences of unusually favorable years. We used germination experiments, an in situ seed bank study, and a 15‐year field seed retrieval study to examine factors affecting seed bank persistence. In the germination study, a majority of seeds remained dormant, despite a wide variety of treatments, suggesting that a large proportion of the seed dispersed each year has cue‐nonresponsive dormancy. Our in situ seed bank study showed that seed density varied widely between sites, among transects, and among samples within a transect. The patchiness of seeds in the soil highlights the importance of protecting large areas where A. californica populations are known to have existed in the past. The seed retrieval study provided strong evidence that this species has a long‐lived seed bank in which only a small fraction of seeds (roughly 5%) become nondormant each year, allowing seed banks of this species to last up to 20 years without a seed production event. Whether this impressive life‐history strategy can maintain the species in the face of climate change depends on the future frequency of the well‐timed precipitation that allows for the establishment of new cohorts of adult plants.