El método del factor de Bayes en el análisis de la energía mecánica en pacientes con insuficiencia respiratoria grave por SARS-CoV-2

OBJECTIVE: To specify the degree of probative force of the statistical hypotheses in relation to mortality at 28 days and the threshold value of 17 J/min mechanical power (MP) in patients with respiratory failure secondary to SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: Cohort study, longitudinal, analytical. SETTING: Intensive care unit of a third level hospital in Spain. PATIENTS: Patients admitted for SARS-CoV-2 infection with admission to the ICU between March 2020 and March 2022. INTERVENTIONS: Bayesian analysis with the beta binomial model. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: Bayes factor, mechanical power. RESULTS: A total of 253 patients were analyzed. Baseline respiratory rate (BF(10): 3.83 × 10(6)), peak pressure value (BF(10): 3.72 × 10(13)) and neumothorax (BF(10): 17,663) were the values most likely to be different between the two groups of patients compared. In the group of patients with MP < 17 J/min, a BF(10) of 12.71 and a BF(01) of 0.07 were established with an 95%CI of 0.27-0.58. For the group of patients with MP ≥ 17 J/min the BF(10) was 36,100 and the BF(01) of 2.77e-05 with an 95%CI of 0.42-0.72. CONCLUSIONS: A MP ≥ 17 J/min value is associated with extreme evidence with 28-day mortality in patients requiring MV due to respiratory failure secondary to SARS-CoV-2 disease.