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Increase in grain production potential of China under climate change

The rapid growth of China's demand for grains is expected to continue in the coming decades, largely as a result of the increasing feed demand to produce protein-rich food. This leads to a great concern on future supply potentials of Chinese agriculture under climate change and the extent of Ch...

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Autores principales: Liang, Zhuoran, Sun, Laixiang, Tian, Zhan, Fischer, Günther, Yan, Huimin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10032358/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36970181
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad057
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author Liang, Zhuoran
Sun, Laixiang
Tian, Zhan
Fischer, Günther
Yan, Huimin
author_facet Liang, Zhuoran
Sun, Laixiang
Tian, Zhan
Fischer, Günther
Yan, Huimin
author_sort Liang, Zhuoran
collection PubMed
description The rapid growth of China's demand for grains is expected to continue in the coming decades, largely as a result of the increasing feed demand to produce protein-rich food. This leads to a great concern on future supply potentials of Chinese agriculture under climate change and the extent of China's dependence on world food markets. While the existing literature in both agronomy and climate economics indicates a dominance of the adverse impacts of climate change on rice, wheat, and maize yields, there is a lack of study to assess changes in multi-cropping opportunities induced by climate change. Multi-cropping benefits crop production by harvesting more than once per year from a given plot. To address this important gap, we established a procedure within the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) modeling framework to assess future spatial shifts of multi-cropping conditions. The assessment was based on an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathway scenarios in the phase five of coupled model inter-comparison project and accounted for the water scarcity constraints. The results show significant northward extensions of single-, double-, and triple-cropping zones in the future which would provide good opportunities for crop-rotation-based adaptation. The increasing multi-cropping opportunities would be able to boost the annual grain production potential by an average scale of 89(±49) Mt at the current irrigation efficiency and 143(±46) Mt at the modernized irrigation efficiency with improvement between the baseline (1981–2010) and the mid-21st century (2041–2070).
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spelling pubmed-100323582023-03-23 Increase in grain production potential of China under climate change Liang, Zhuoran Sun, Laixiang Tian, Zhan Fischer, Günther Yan, Huimin PNAS Nexus Physical Sciences and Engineering The rapid growth of China's demand for grains is expected to continue in the coming decades, largely as a result of the increasing feed demand to produce protein-rich food. This leads to a great concern on future supply potentials of Chinese agriculture under climate change and the extent of China's dependence on world food markets. While the existing literature in both agronomy and climate economics indicates a dominance of the adverse impacts of climate change on rice, wheat, and maize yields, there is a lack of study to assess changes in multi-cropping opportunities induced by climate change. Multi-cropping benefits crop production by harvesting more than once per year from a given plot. To address this important gap, we established a procedure within the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) modeling framework to assess future spatial shifts of multi-cropping conditions. The assessment was based on an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathway scenarios in the phase five of coupled model inter-comparison project and accounted for the water scarcity constraints. The results show significant northward extensions of single-, double-, and triple-cropping zones in the future which would provide good opportunities for crop-rotation-based adaptation. The increasing multi-cropping opportunities would be able to boost the annual grain production potential by an average scale of 89(±49) Mt at the current irrigation efficiency and 143(±46) Mt at the modernized irrigation efficiency with improvement between the baseline (1981–2010) and the mid-21st century (2041–2070). Oxford University Press 2023-03-14 /pmc/articles/PMC10032358/ /pubmed/36970181 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad057 Text en © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com
spellingShingle Physical Sciences and Engineering
Liang, Zhuoran
Sun, Laixiang
Tian, Zhan
Fischer, Günther
Yan, Huimin
Increase in grain production potential of China under climate change
title Increase in grain production potential of China under climate change
title_full Increase in grain production potential of China under climate change
title_fullStr Increase in grain production potential of China under climate change
title_full_unstemmed Increase in grain production potential of China under climate change
title_short Increase in grain production potential of China under climate change
title_sort increase in grain production potential of china under climate change
topic Physical Sciences and Engineering
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10032358/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36970181
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad057
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