Similarities in COVID-19 Mortality Between Canadian Provinces and American States Before Vaccines Were Available

Canada and the USA are often compared for their markedly different approaches to health care despite cultural similarities and sharing the world’s longest international boundary. The period between the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020 and the availability of a vaccine in December 2020 offers an ideal opportunity to compare subnational Canadian and American pandemic mortality. Preventing the spread of COVID-19 was through compliance with health orders and best practices; treatment was only available to those admitted to hospitals and whose lives were at risk. Using publicly available data from the Johns Hopkins University 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard, we seek to uncover if there were any similarities in Canadian provinces’ and American states’ monthly COVID-19 mortality per 100,000 people, building on a broader scientific push towards understanding the successes and failures of different health systems in the pandemic. The similar province and state cumulative COVID-19 mortality rate trajectories identified in our analyses do not amount to intuitive comparative jurisdictions which suggests the importance of identifying localized pandemic responses.