Selection tests and their predictive value in university nursing students’ success in the first year of study

BACKGROUND: Academic performance factors, such as school-leaving grades and other academic indicators for selection, play a significant role in student success. The study aimed to determine the best predictors of academic success in the first year of study for nursing studies at a South African university using three National Benchmark Test (NBT) domains and four National Senior Certificate (NSC) subjects. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of the admission data of first-time students (n = 317), enrolled on the Bachelor of Nursing between 2012 and 2018. Hierarchical regression was used to explore important variables predicting success in the first year of study. Cross tabulations were used to determine the association between progression outcome, proficiency levels of the NBT and school quintiles. RESULTS: All predicting variables explained 35% of the variance in the first year of the study. The NBT MAT (Mathematics), Academic literacy (AL), and NSC’s Life Sciences were statistically significant predictors for passing the first year. Analysis of progression outcomes by the NBT proficiency levels suggests that most students begin studies with lower entry-level skills than required, which hinders academic progress. No major differences in academic performance were observed for the students who attended different quintiles. CONCLUSION: Selection test results predict areas where students are likely to encounter difficulties and inform the interventions needed to achieve academic success. There may be serious implications for students admitted with low entry-level skills in variables predicting academic success and they would need tailored academic interventions to improve their grasp of mathematical and biological concepts and their ability to read, think and reason. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12909-023-04140-4.