Identifying Good Candidates for Active Surveillance of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: Insights from a Large Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy Cohort

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a biologically heterogenous entity with uncertain risk for invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) development. Standard treatment is surgical resection often followed by radiation. New approaches are needed to reduce overtreatment. This was an observational study that enrolled patients with DCIS who chose not to pursue surgical resection from 2002 to 2019 at a single academic medical center. All patients underwent breast MRI exams at 3- to 6-month intervals. Patients with hormone receptor–positive disease received endocrine therapy. Surgical resection was strongly recommended if clinical or radiographic evidence of disease progression developed. A recursive partitioning (R-PART) algorithm incorporating breast MRI features and endocrine responsiveness was used retrospectively to stratify risk of IDC. A total of 71 patients were enrolled, 2 with bilateral DCIS (73 lesions). A total of 34 (46.6%) were premenopausal, 68 (93.2%) were hormone-receptor positive, and 60 (82.1%) were intermediate- or high-grade lesions. Mean follow-up time was 8.5 years. Over half (52.1%) remained on active surveillance without evidence of IDC with mean duration of 7.4 years. Twenty patients developed IDC, of which 6 were HER2 positive. DCIS and subsequent IDC had highly concordant tumor biology. Risk of IDC was characterized by MRI features after 6 months of endocrine therapy exposure; low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were identified with respective IDC rates of 8.7%, 20.0%, and 68.2%. Thus, active surveillance consisting of neoadjuvant endocrine therapy and serial breast MRI may be an effective tool to risk-stratify patients with DCIS and optimally select medical or surgical management. SIGNIFICANCE: A retrospective analysis of 71 patients with DCIS who did not undergo upfront surgery demonstrated that breast MRI features after short-term exposure to endocrine therapy identify those at high (68.2%), intermediate (20.0%), and low risk (8.7%) of IDC. With 7.4 years mean follow-up, 52.1% of patients remain on active surveillance. A period of active surveillance offers the opportunity to risk-stratify DCIS lesions and guide decisions for operative management.